Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 17, 2021

September 17, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ginny B 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Matt’s Honey 2.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Magical Peapod 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 My Girl Lexi 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Dutch Treat 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Ginormous 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Malibu Marlee 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Laura’s Charm 3.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 Moon Over Tuscany 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Classical Romance 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Lady Bernadette 6.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Justhappy 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Runningonthetafuel 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Ghostly Secret 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 Joezine 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Greedy Algorithm 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Palm Cottage 2.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Minute Waltz 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Strong Silent 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Frost Point 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Rookery 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Docs Seven 12.00 5.6 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sidetown 2.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Dominar 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Sarcastic Tone 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Big in the City 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Sir Acealot 8.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Desoto’s War 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Mr. Flattery 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Southern Will 8.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Clearly Mad 10.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Helluva Life 20.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 El Casadora 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Keen Mind 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Paynt Your Wagon 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Michael Collins 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Rich Strike 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Brazil Nut 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Relativlea 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Shacklesfly 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sauced 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Loonshot 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Twitchy 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 El Bandera 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Striking a Pose 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Buffalo Shuffle 3.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Waspirant 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Boss Is a Pal 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 9 Spheroid 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Lake Nakuru 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Swingin Friar 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Englander 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Sol Del Sur 10.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Enraged 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Cornbread Hill 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Bump 30.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Gorgeous Carina 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Catwings 3.00 4 8-1
4 4 Fabulous Fanny 2.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Kant Believe It 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Tricked Out 10.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Southern Miss 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Princedreamcess 10.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Please Be Kind 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Most Empressive 20.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Another Flat Drunk 20.00 9.1 17-1
10 10 Sophie Grace 20.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Off We Go 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 7 Bayshore Foxes 4.00 2.9 6-1
10 9 Shastaloo 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Alberta Sun 5.00 4.5 8-1
9 8 Golden Account 10.00 6.1 11-1
6 5 Stylish Rags 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 6 Sunny Isle Beach 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 4 Fortuna Adiuvat 15.00 8.3 16-1
4 3 Sapphire Royalty 15.00 9.3 18-1
2 2 Khozie’s Ghost 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mr. Big News 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Beau Luminarie 3.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Claytnthelionheart 2.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Allege 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Treasure Trove 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Colonelsdarktemper 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 American Tattoo (ARG) 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Twenty Twice 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Good Juju 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Job Security 30.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 6 Dame Joviale 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 4 Parlance 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Ocean Size 5.00 4.6 9-1
7 5 Yuugiri 10.00 4.6 9-1
11 8 Honey Run 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 2 Becauseofthebrave 10.00 5.8 11-1
12 9 Meanwhileinleitrim 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 7 Bode by You 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 3 Karmari 30.00 10 19-1
2 2 Patna 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Dream On It 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Murgatroyd 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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