September 17, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ginny B | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Matt’s Honey | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Magical Peapod | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Girl Lexi | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dutch Treat | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ginormous | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Marlee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Laura’s Charm | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Moon Over Tuscany | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Classical Romance | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Bernadette | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Justhappy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Runningonthetafuel | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostly Secret | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Joezine | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Greedy Algorithm | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Palm Cottage | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Minute Waltz | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Silent | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frost Point | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rookery | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Docs Seven | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sidetown | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dominar | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sarcastic Tone | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big in the City | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Acealot | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Desoto’s War | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Flattery | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Southern Will | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clearly Mad | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Helluva Life | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | El Casadora | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Keen Mind | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paynt Your Wagon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Michael Collins | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rich Strike | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brazil Nut | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Relativlea | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shacklesfly | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sauced | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Loonshot | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Twitchy | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | El Bandera | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Striking a Pose | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Buffalo Shuffle | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Waspirant | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boss Is a Pal | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spheroid | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lake Nakuru | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Swingin Friar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Englander | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sol Del Sur | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Enraged | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cornbread Hill | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bump | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Gorgeous Carina | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Catwings | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fabulous Fanny | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kant Believe It | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tricked Out | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Miss | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princedreamcess | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Please Be Kind | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Most Empressive | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Another Flat Drunk | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sophie Grace | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Off We Go | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bayshore Foxes | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shastaloo | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alberta Sun | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Golden Account | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stylish Rags | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sunny Isle Beach | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sapphire Royalty | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khozie’s Ghost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Big News | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beau Luminarie | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Claytnthelionheart | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Allege | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Treasure Trove | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colonelsdarktemper | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Twenty Twice | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Juju | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Job Security | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Dame Joviale | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Parlance | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ocean Size | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yuugiri | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Honey Run | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Becauseofthebrave | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Meanwhileinleitrim | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bode by You | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Karmari | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patna | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dream On It | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Murgatroyd | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.