Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 17, 2021

September 17, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Maximus Image 15.00 1.8 3-1
6 4 Chapel Barn 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Edison Fire 15.00 2.3 4-1
7 5 Croce d’Oro 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Half of Manhattan 1.60 3.3 6-1
4 4 Eskendereyas Dream 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hinton 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 First Squadron 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Winning Quality 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Drinks On Me 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 Satiate 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Lady Magna 2.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Flying Business 12.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Irish Halo 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hoosier Gold Case 4.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Go Stormin Girl 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Me too Mo 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Dreaming of Paris 1.80 4.2 8-1
2 2 Song and a Kiss 20.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Ozette 10.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Nice and True 3.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Kenai Cool 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mr. Eleventh Hour 3.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Pachi 5.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Dick the Bruiser 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Mister Charming 12.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Z U At the Races 4.00 5 9-1
5 5 Grand Hideaway 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Change Direction 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Morriston 4.50 8 15-1
2 2 Day in the Country 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 War Lance 15.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Bourbon Tan 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Poppy’s Boys 4.50 3.8 7-1
9 9 Honest to Goodness 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Packed House 3.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Danville 1.80 5 9-1
3 3 Campioni 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Policy Option 8.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Two Cookie Rule 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Locamotor 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Merlin’s Song 20.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Get Hammered 1.60 3.3 6-1
4 4 Hide the Demon 10.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Aggressivity 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Wild Wes 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Wellabled 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Archiemyboy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Upbeat Melody 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Junior Bug 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Cachaco 20.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Chopper 20.00 3.6 7-1
10 8 Skip the Smalltalk 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 5 Moon Flash 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Toussaint 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Macho Classic 20.00 8.2 15-1
4 4 Will Ya Win Sum 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Three Amigos (FR) 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Morethansoultitle 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Triple Chrome 3.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Strings 2.50 1.3 3-1
2 2 Stonevicious 6.00 1.5 3-1
9 8 Hard Company 8.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Sovereign of Speed 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Masquerade Ball 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Elegant Joy 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Onyourmarkgetsetgo 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Mud Island 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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