September 17, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maximus Image | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chapel Barn | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Edison Fire | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Croce d’Oro | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half of Manhattan | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eskendereyas Dream | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hinton | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | First Squadron | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Winning Quality | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Drinks On Me | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Satiate | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Magna | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Business | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Halo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hoosier Gold Case | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Stormin Girl | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Me too Mo | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dreaming of Paris | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Song and a Kiss | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ozette | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nice and True | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kenai Cool | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pachi | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dick the Bruiser | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Charming | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Z U At the Races | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Hideaway | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Change Direction | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Morriston | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Day in the Country | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | War Lance | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbon Tan | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Poppy’s Boys | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Honest to Goodness | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Packed House | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Danville | 1.80 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Campioni | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Policy Option | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Cookie Rule | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Locamotor | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Merlin’s Song | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Get Hammered | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Demon | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Aggressivity | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Wes | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wellabled | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Archiemyboy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Upbeat Melody | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Junior Bug | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cachaco | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chopper | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Skip the Smalltalk | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Moon Flash | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Toussaint | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Macho Classic | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Will Ya Win Sum | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Three Amigos (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Morethansoultitle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Triple Chrome | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strings | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stonevicious | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hard Company | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sovereign of Speed | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Masquerade Ball | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elegant Joy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Onyourmarkgetsetgo | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mud Island | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.