Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 16, 2021

September 16, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Blonde On Tap 2.00 3 6-1
5 5 Spy a Star 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 Speed Zone 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Tribord 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Shirley Greene 15.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Fantastic Riva 12.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Anna’s Moonlight 12.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Vallejo 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Mini Dress 15.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Eida’s Storm 20.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ambitiously Placed 1.60 2.8 5-1
7 7 Bertrada 1.80 2.9 6-1
5 5 Coinmaker 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Princess d’Oro 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Right Trappe 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Paulas Game 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Graciana 15.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Risky Town 3.00 3.4 7-1
6 7 Brother Aaron 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 2 Nietzsche 3.00 3.6 7-1
1A 4 Double Tough Tiger 3.00 3.7 7-1
7 8 Family Man 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Copper King 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 1 Allen 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 6 Jack’s Advantage 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 5 Hesabully 20.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Honky Tonk Hero 4.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Charger 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Pledgeofallegiance 2.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Racarino 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Centurion 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Seminole Beach 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Preseli’s Tale 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Polsar 15.00 7.1 14-1
9 9 Suppressor 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Aeronaut 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Almanzo 5.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Zippin Gigi 5.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Cogburn 3.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Inbound 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Celestial Finish 8.00 6.6 13-1
11 11 Cyclone 10.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Sutherland 12.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Andy Cant 12.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Ain’t That a Kick 10.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Jego 12.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Supremely 15.00 9.7 18-1
7 7 Officer Nick 12.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Altus 15.00 11.2 21-1
16 16 Unified Report 15.00 11.3 21-1
15 15 Fightville 20.00 12.4 23-1
14 14 Sacred Midnight 20.00 12.6 24-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bears Watching 1.20 2.9 6-1
4 4 Sounion 4.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Mr Sippi 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Speitful Sam 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Big Nick 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Name Rejected 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Flags Up 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Schmoozin 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Spankhurst 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Powder River 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Singita Dreams 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Microcap 3.00 3 6-1
8 8 Its Cold in Dehere 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Fire Coral 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Gran Baby (CHI) 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Funnybet 12.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Audrey’s Time 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 La Tourista 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Areemaa 4.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Mending 4.50 4.2 8-1
11 11 Mama Lou 5.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 My Alimony 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Golden Grant 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Dance On Over 8.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Time’s On My Side 5.00 5 9-1
3 3 Momma Rio 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Bethy 8.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Lady Protonico 20.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Ike Likes 30.00 11.2 21-1
12 12 Minniemorepromises 30.00 13 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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