September 16, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tribord | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spy a Star | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speed Zone | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blonde On Tap | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fantastic Riva | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shirley Greene | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Anna’s Moonlight | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vallejo | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mini Dress | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eida’s Storm | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ambitiously Placed | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bertrada | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coinmaker | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Princess d’Oro | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Right Trappe | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Graciana | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Paulas Game | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Risky Town | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Family Man | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Nietzsche | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Double Tough Tiger | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Brother Aaron | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Copper King | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Allen | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Jack’s Advantage | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Hesabully | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Honky Tonk Hero | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pledgeofallegiance | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Charger | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Centurion | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Seminole Beach | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Preseli’s Tale | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Suppressor | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Polsar | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aeronaut | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Racarino | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Almanzo | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cogburn | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zippin Gigi | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Inbound | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Celestial Finish | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cyclone | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sutherland | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ain’t That a Kick | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Andy Cant | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jego | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Officer Nick | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Supremely | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sacred Midnight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fightville | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Unified Report | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Altus | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bears Watching | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sounion | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speitful Sam | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Sippi | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Nick | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Name Rejected | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flags Up | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Schmoozin | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spankhurst | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Powder River | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Singita Dreams | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Microcap | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Its Cold in Dehere | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Coral | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gran Baby (CHI) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Funnybet | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Audrey’s Time | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | La Tourista | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Areemaa | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mending | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Alimony | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mama Lou | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Grant | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dance On Over | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Time’s On My Side | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bethy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Protonico | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Momma Rio | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ike Likes | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Minniemorepromises | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.