Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 16, 2021

September 16, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – William Entenmann Memorial Hurdle S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 French Light (FR) 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Ritzy A. P. 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Booby Trap 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Perfect Tapatino (FR) 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Baltimore Bucko (GB) 1.60 4.6 9-1
5 5 Bassmatchi (FR) 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 A Silent Player (IRE) 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Lonesome Glory H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Snap Decision 1.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 The Mean Queen (IRE) 1.40 4.6 9-1
1 1 Amschel (GB) 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Brianbakescookies 20.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Redicean (GB) 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Bodes Well (IRE) 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Galway Kid (IRE) 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Coach Bahe 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 Breaking Stones 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Orb in the Tower 1.80 3.8 7-1
3 3 Good Culture 2.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Papa Jimmy 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Scotty 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Crowding Out 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Lilac Girl 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Chalet Beach (IRE) 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Intense Honor 10.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 O’Gotten Girl 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Split Then Double (GB) 2.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Good Talk 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Arch of Fire 30.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gabriela’s Miracle 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Prima Della 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Amore Fire 10.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Amazing Dream 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Afilada 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Saratoga Kisses 3.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Conservatve Values 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 London Pearl 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Messidor (IRE) 3.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Misspell 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Designer Ready 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Take It Off 6.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Lady Petrol (GB) 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Sport Model 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 9 Evvie Jets 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Adelaide Miss 10.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Contained 8.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Flat Out Beautiful 5.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Alcools 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Fox Red 3.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Clench 1.20 4.5 9-1
6 6 Mojovation 6.00 4.8 9-1
1A 8 Happy Farm 1.20 5.3 10-1
4 4 Free Enterprise 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 Just Right 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Perjury Trap 0.80 2.7 5-1
7 8 Zoomer 2.50 3 6-1
6 6 Kinenos 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Temple 4.50 4 8-1
1 5 Value Engineering 0.80 4.2 8-1
5 4 Farmington Road 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Summer to Remember 3.50 4.7 9-1
3 2 Gunnison 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Black Licorice 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Exfiltration 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Spun for Lu Lu 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Constitutionalrage 8.00 5 10-1
10 10 Bella Principessa 3.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Mondeuse 4.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Lemon Taffy 4.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Killoean Rose 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Mill Stone Creek 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Duckphat 20.00 7 13-1
14 14 Barrel of Bliss 30.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Grace in Motion 30.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Elegant Laoban 30.00 8.2 15-1
7 7 Angeloverthepulpit 50.00 8.5 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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