September 16, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bossy Snow Pea | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cave Creek | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | La Guerrerita | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cookin Roses | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lexi Summer | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Touch by Felicty | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Attack | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Royal Mission | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | U Can Do It | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Boss Lady | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Wandaful | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizaladybug | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nurse Sadie | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dancin At Midnight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Joan’s Way | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Hero | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Colorofacloud | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | English | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fox Able Charlie | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Governors Wraith | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Maid of Honor | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Valerie Valeski | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aka Lioness | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Neve de Lua | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lady X Factor | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ruler Daenerys | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Starlet Warrior | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tika Toy | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Andreas | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ioya Again | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paddy’s House | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Iwillpersevere | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Empty Holster | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coming Up Aces | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Admiral Returns | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Couger | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alotmoreaction | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Girls Count | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Supreme Irene | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twelve Red Roses | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Imagine Gold | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Locash | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bird Key | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Weekend Pass | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dynablue | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bourre’ Trick | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rave On | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dastardly Deeds | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Biggie | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Storm’s Reflection | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rocket Hotshot | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Muchomatic | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call of Honor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Major Wager | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Star of Kodiak | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Blue Note | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kennesaw | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Here Comes Kyle | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Royal Commish | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ol Grey Ghost | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Omar Attack | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Navy Seal | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Power Through | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Baseball Politics | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.