Sports from the Basement

Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 11, 2021

September 11, 2021 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kanta 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Aubrieta 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Spooky Spice 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Distorted Success 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Spice in Yuh Life 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Marie MacKay 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Veri Unified 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Midnight Choir 2.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Admiring 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Sundar 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Lady Moonshine 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Karakontieparadise 3.50 4.5 8-1
4 4 Itskathiesluckyday 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Gwen 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Reciprocal 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Seagram Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Another Mystery 4.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Special Forces 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mighty Heart 0.80 3.1 6-1
5 5 Tap It to Win 10.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Dolder Grand 6.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Cleomenes 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Con Thien 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Spin That Tune 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Momma Carrie 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Green Gables 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Shes the North 4.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Ashbury 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Shez a Sealy 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Umneyaat 10.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Princess Lannister 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Gold Forester 20.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Taquanyah 20.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 James Bay 3.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Chasing Vinny 3.50 4.4 8-1
5 4 Race for Pinks 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 8 Crafty Conquest 10.00 4.5 9-1
4 3 Executive Holiday 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Bokermin 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Maximus Momentus 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 De Only Solution 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Canola World 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kodiak Mamba (IRE) 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Silent Fire 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Union Colonel 5.00 5.2 10-1
4 3 Best and Final 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Verrazano Narrows 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Steel Wool 15.00 6.6 13-1
12 11 Doc Fishman 20.00 7.8 15-1
11 10 Mr. Magical 20.00 8.1 15-1
6 5 Regal Intent 20.00 8.1 15-1
10 9 Milwaukee Fibolt 20.00 8.1 15-1
9 8 Carrobio 20.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Tourist’s Dream 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Vice Regent S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Not So Quiet 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Celebratory 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Circle of Friends 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Forester’s Fortune 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 City Boy 2.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Souper Hot 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Alacritous 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Rockcrest 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Frosted Over 2.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Broadway 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Souper Watson 2.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Bode’s Tipsy 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Holyfield 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Unilateral 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Finalist 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Road to Romance 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Scatter the Clouds 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 Rakasa 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Take It Easy 3.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Magical Soul 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Fedalia 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Real Coal 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Systemic Risk 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Melrose Star 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Gospel Hill 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Fionnuala 4.00 4.9 9-1
13 12 Billyjane 12.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Bosskaye 12.00 6.6 12-1
12 11 Silver Heights 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Careless Heiress 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Golden World 20.00 7.6 14-1
11 10 Silenzio 10.00 7.9 15-1
10 9 I’m Not Perfect 10.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Jolie Davina 20.00 8.7 17-1
6 6 Tenpenny Nail 20.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Know How (GB) 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Knew as a Breeze 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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