Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, September 9, 2021

September 9, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Just Ben 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Street Edge 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Last Spring 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Agave Kid 2.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Lasten Impression 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Carson Rules 4.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Chopper 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 One Way Home 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Jeff the Lion 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 High Spirits 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Pistol Box 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Tap the Mojo 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Frontana 2.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lipliner 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Savvy Ally 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Chrome Attack 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Poseidon’s Passion 5.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Belle Brezing 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Willow Moon 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Aiken to Be 2.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Field Letters 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Driver Dan 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 High On Sugar 12.00 4 8-1
2 2 Young Corbett 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Landofthepharaohs 5.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Contraction 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Cadet Captain 3.50 6.3 12-1
1 1 McHenry 12.00 7.1 14-1
7 7 Andreas 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Be Authentic 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Irish Halo 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Catnip Kitten 4.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Dreaming of Paris 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Speak English 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Big Luck 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Present of Hero 2.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Kuringai 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Night Things 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 3 Cyril’s Boy 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 El Asesino 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Lost in Manhattan 3.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Lake Mills 8.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 One Putt Richie 3.50 7 13-1
8 6 Mkar the Fast 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 On the Muscle 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 King Tito 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Intraday (BRZ) 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Lake Nakuru 20.00 4.3 8-1
9 8 Gate Crew 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Land Mark Deal 5.00 5.4 10-1
11 10 Jungle Fighter 4.50 5.6 11-1
8 7 Barleewon 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 War Chest 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Curlington 12.00 7 13-1
10 9 First Masamune 4.50 7.8 15-1
3 3 Bulldog of Bergen 20.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Duchossois 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zarmae 6.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Convict Pike 2.50 3 6-1
8 8 Radiant Castle 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Canihaveitlikethat 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Dramatic Kitten 3.50 5.1 10-1
3 3 Mister Charming 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Niles Channel 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Pleasant Moon 3.50 7.2 14-1
9 9 Majestic Day 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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