September 9, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Just Ben | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Street Edge | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Last Spring | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Agave Kid | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lasten Impression | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carson Rules | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chopper | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | One Way Home | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jeff the Lion | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Spirits | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pistol Box | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tap the Mojo | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frontana | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lipliner | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Savvy Ally | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chrome Attack | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Poseidon’s Passion | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Belle Brezing | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Willow Moon | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aiken to Be | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Field Letters | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Driver Dan | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High On Sugar | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Young Corbett | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Landofthepharaohs | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Contraction | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadet Captain | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | McHenry | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Andreas | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Be Authentic | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Halo | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catnip Kitten | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreaming of Paris | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speak English | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Luck | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Present of Hero | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kuringai | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Night Things | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Cyril’s Boy | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | El Asesino | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lost in Manhattan | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lake Mills | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | One Putt Richie | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mkar the Fast | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | On the Muscle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | King Tito | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Intraday (BRZ) | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lake Nakuru | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gate Crew | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Land Mark Deal | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jungle Fighter | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Barleewon | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Chest | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlington | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | First Masamune | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bulldog of Bergen | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Duchossois | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zarmae | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Convict Pike | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Radiant Castle | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Canihaveitlikethat | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dramatic Kitten | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Charming | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Niles Channel | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pleasant Moon | 3.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Majestic Day | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.