Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 5, 2021

September 5, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sweet Lady Ivanka 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Speedometer 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Hope Over Fear 4.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Alsanah 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Love to Run 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Magic Circle 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Sonnyneedsmoney 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 S Oh S 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Sealithic 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Madam Maclean 3.00 2 4-1
11 12 Sassy Melissa 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Little Dutch Girl 4.50 2.5 5-1
9 9 Lucky Latkes 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 11 Courted 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Appreciate 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Prospective Candy 15.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Khali Magic 12.00 9.6 18-1
1 5 Malibu Luna 15.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Hollywood Gina 3.50 SCRATCH
3 2 Calibogue Sound 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 10 Carly Hustle 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Coalition Building 1.20 2.4 5-1
9 9 Balinese 10.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Blue Times 12.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Mothers Day Jewel 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Checksandbalances (IRE) 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Closertotheheart 8.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Violent Vixen 20.00 5.9 11-1
14 14 Mischief Reigns 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Synonymous 20.00 6.1 12-1
11 11 My Sunny Valentine 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Exotic Cat 30.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Never Content (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Little Nutter 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hard Won 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Decreed 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hiya Harry 50.00 12.6 24-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lady Traveler 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Song River 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Glass Ceiling 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Jades Gelly 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Rivendell 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Off We Go 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Spin a Yarn 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Milestone Payment (IRE) 1.40 1.3 3-1
1A 10 Party Line Vote 1.40 1.5 3-1
8 8 Thisladyis the Law 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Imwaytoocoolforyou 5.00 3 6-1
7 7 Soupster 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Thismightbetheone 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Arch of Fire 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 Thegoddessofsnakes 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Isle Storm 15.00 7.6 14-1
2 1 Boss Cara 15.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Caribbean Gold 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Actuary (GB) 8.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 Clever Fellow 3.00 3 6-1
10 10 Risk Manager 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Eternal Summer 8.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Public Information 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Fair Haired Boy 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Bricco 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Indoctrinate 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Yankee Empire 30.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Nutsie 30.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Fast Gordon 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ajaaweed 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Magnificent Chrome 50.00 12.2 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Classy Edition 1.80 1.3 2-1
6 6 Summer Snow 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Classic Lynne 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 N Y Fancy 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Back Up the Brinks 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Laochi 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Pals Ally 15.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Write the Check 20.00 9 17-1
11 11 Belarus 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Adversity 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Chiara 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kisses for Emily 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sedona Rocks 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Caragate 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Vallelujah 30.00 12.2 23-1
10 10 London Pearl 30.00 12.6 24-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jester Calls Nojoy 1.40 1.2 2-1
8 8 Amani’s Image 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Li Li Bear 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Malibu Kendall 8.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Texian 8.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Solasta 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Handbelle 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Chasing Artemis 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Belle Gosse 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Pacific Grove 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Baseline Drive 3.50 3 6-1
12 12 Lucy’s Cakes Fly 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Command Point 4.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Kemba 6.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Family Time 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Mopolka 8.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Exotic West 12.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Hohohoho 10.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Evidence Based 12.00 8.9 17-1
13 13 Trumpet Lilly 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Caramocha 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Theodora Grace 20.00 10.6 20-1
3 3 Shining Colors 20.00 12.1 23-1
10 10 Claddagh’s Run 20.00 13.1 25-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 First Constitution (CHI) 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Mystic Night 2.50 3.1 6-1
9 8 Superfecto 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Danny California 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 You’re to Blame 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Thomas Shelby 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 4 Limonite 12.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Locally Owned 15.00 7.8 15-1
7 6 Backsideofthemoon 20.00 8.7 17-1
1 1 Portos 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Spinaway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Echo Zulu 1.60 1.2 2-1
5 5 Pretty Birdie 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Girl With a Dream 6.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Dream Lith 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Tarabi 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Sue Ellen Mishkin 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Sequist 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Benbang 20.00 7 13-1
6 6 Saucy Lady T 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 King Angelo 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Veterans Beach 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Neuro 6.00 3.6 7-1
12 11 Uncle’s Gem 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 High Limit Room 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Scotty Brown 10.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Halpert 12.00 8.1 15-1
8 7 Slambone 15.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Dr. Blute 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lookin for Trouble 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Him She Kisses 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Colormepazzi 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beautiful Karen 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Clamor 20.00 12.4 23-1
10 9 Great Blake 20.00 13.3 25-1
9 8 Volkert 20.00 15.4 29-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
2nd - 1:27
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Final
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4th - 9:35
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3rd - 8:27
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3rd - 7:47
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3rd - 8:39
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2nd - 3:17
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2nd - 2:36
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1st - 4:10
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