September 5, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Lady Ivanka | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speedometer | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hope Over Fear | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alsanah | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Love to Run | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Circle | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sonnyneedsmoney | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | S Oh S | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sealithic | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Madam Maclean | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Sassy Melissa | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little Dutch Girl | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lucky Latkes | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Courted | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Appreciate | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prospective Candy | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Khali Magic | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Malibu Luna | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Hollywood Gina | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Calibogue Sound | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 10 | Carly Hustle | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Coalition Building | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Balinese | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Times | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mothers Day Jewel | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Checksandbalances (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Closertotheheart | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Violent Vixen | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mischief Reigns | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Synonymous | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | My Sunny Valentine | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exotic Cat | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Never Content (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Little Nutter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hard Won | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Decreed | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hiya Harry | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lady Traveler | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Song River | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glass Ceiling | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jades Gelly | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rivendell | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Off We Go | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spin a Yarn | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Milestone Payment (IRE) | 1.40 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Party Line Vote | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Thisladyis the Law | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Imwaytoocoolforyou | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Soupster | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thismightbetheone | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Arch of Fire | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Isle Storm | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Boss Cara | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Caribbean Gold | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Actuary (GB) | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Clever Fellow | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Risk Manager | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eternal Summer | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Public Information | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fair Haired Boy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bricco | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indoctrinate | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Yankee Empire | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nutsie | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fast Gordon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ajaaweed | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Magnificent Chrome | 50.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Classy Edition | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Snow | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classic Lynne | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | N Y Fancy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Back Up the Brinks | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Laochi | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pals Ally | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Write the Check | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Belarus | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Adversity | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Chiara | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kisses for Emily | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sedona Rocks | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Caragate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Vallelujah | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | London Pearl | 30.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jester Calls Nojoy | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Amani’s Image | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Li Li Bear | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Kendall | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Texian | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Solasta | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Handbelle | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chasing Artemis | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Belle Gosse | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pacific Grove | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Baseline Drive | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lucy’s Cakes Fly | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Command Point | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kemba | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Family Time | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mopolka | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Exotic West | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hohohoho | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Evidence Based | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Trumpet Lilly | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Caramocha | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Theodora Grace | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shining Colors | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Claddagh’s Run | 20.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | First Constitution (CHI) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mystic Night | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Superfecto | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Danny California | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | You’re to Blame | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thomas Shelby | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Limonite | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Locally Owned | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Backsideofthemoon | 20.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portos | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Spinaway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Echo Zulu | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Birdie | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Girl With a Dream | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dream Lith | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tarabi | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sue Ellen Mishkin | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sequist | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Benbang | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saucy Lady T | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | King Angelo | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Veterans Beach | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Neuro | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Uncle’s Gem | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | High Limit Room | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scotty Brown | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Halpert | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Slambone | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Blute | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lookin for Trouble | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Him She Kisses | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Colormepazzi | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Beautiful Karen | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Clamor | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Great Blake | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Volkert | 20.00 | 15.4 | 29-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.