Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 4, 2021

September 4, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 War Smoke 2.50 1.9 4-1
12 12 Suit of Armor 6.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Sheriff Bianco 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Brian’s Mission 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Citizen K 15.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 El Diablo 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 B C Glory Days 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Distractandattack 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Fuoco 30.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Giramonte 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Scherzando 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Forty Comets 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Stonecoldwarrior 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Heroneandonly 50.00 12 23-1
10 10 On the Dean’s List 50.00 12.1 23-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ashaar 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Roaming Union 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Supreme Aura 2.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Grumps Little Tots 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Legit 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Acker 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Heavy Roller 30.00 8.4 16-1
7 7 Universal Payday 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Baby I’m Perfect 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cody’s Wish 1.60 1.6 3-1
7 7 Pipeline 2.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 North Carolina 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Ubiquitous 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Waxman 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Sticky Issue 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Baltasar 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Risky Mischief 1.60 3.2 6-1
8 8 Miss Domina 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Harper’s in Charge 4.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Meet the Beauty 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Fetching 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Lilly Simone 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Fort Drum 15.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Screamin’ By 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Rivendell 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Prioress S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Souper Sensational 1.20 2 4-1
1 1 Oxana 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Edie Meeny Miny Mo 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Cilla 8.00 5 9-1
3 3 Li’l Tootsie 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Amendment Nineteen 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Annapolis 2.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Nyquest Nix 5.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Ohtwoohthreefive 3.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Beloved Warrior 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Calloway Peak 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Curbstone 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 I’ll Figure It Out 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Irish Sea 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Southern Sense 20.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Pioneer of Medina 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Immokalee 1.80 SCRATCH
13 13 So Determined 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Faith Runner 30.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Misbehaved 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Ten Gauge 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 6 Galt 4.00 1.9 4-1
10 8 Brigadier General 5.00 2 4-1
2 2 Classic Causeway 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Olympian 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Trafalgar 10.00 3.1 6-1
9 7 Tiz Eternal 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Jurkovec 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Atlantic Dancer 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cloud Play 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Saranac S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Public Sector (GB) 1.40 2 4-1
5 5 Founder 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Never Surprised 1.60 2.6 5-1
2 2 Like the King 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Mohs 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 He’spuregold 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Risk Taking 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 English Breeze 2.50 3.1 6-1
1A 6 Cara’s Dreamer 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Just Ok Is Not Ok 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Electric Youth 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Freedom Machine 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Lookin to Fly 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 4 Golden Oldie 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Infringement 15.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Beyond Brown 20.00 9.4 18-1
4 3 Tax Me Naught 20.00 9.8 19-1
1 6 Caramocha 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Ducale 2.50 1.3 3-1
8 6 Baby Yoda 6.00 2.1 4-1
10 8 Hometown 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 3 Marching 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 7 Crowded Trade 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Olympiad 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tuggle 8.00 4 7-1
12 10 Stayin’ Out Late 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Rejected Again 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Wow Brown 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hoopla 30.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Ampersand 50.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Flower Bowl S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 La Signare (FR) 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 War Like Goddess 0.80 2.6 5-1
4 4 My Sister Nat (FR) 5.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Great Island 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 American Bridge (GB) 12.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Lovely Lucky 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Coastana 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Max Player 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Night Ops 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Forza Di Oro 1.60 1.7 3-1
4 4 Happy Saver 1.80 2.3 4-1
3 3 Chess Chief 15.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Forewarned 50.00 4.6 9-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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