September 4, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vetoed | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sumo | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Encroachment | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cali Bay (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dixie’s Two Stents | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grandconcourse Guy | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Solo Animo | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lord M | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Koko’s Kandy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 98 | Star Sailor | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Irish Heatwave | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fly to Mars | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Barristan The Bold (GB) | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ian Glass | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blameless | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Horse (ARG) | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Black Album (FR) | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Appreciated | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Feast | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Took Charge | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sabuda | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Augusta Melody | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Holden the Lute | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ka’nah | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hawk Hill | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cant Stop This Man | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roadside | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Allaboutthemoney | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Primer Dimer | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Harbor Sky | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Da Kine | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Abi Gezunt | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gone Rogue | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | K P Silver Bullet | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Chance | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mongol Altai | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bold Voyager | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tiz Vicious | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 98 | Revisionist | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Queen Goddess | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Bella Ciao | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Basilia | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Can’thelpfallin (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Moraz | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fi Fi Pharoah | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | For the Good Times | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Pearl | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magical Thought | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – I’m Smokin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rock N Rye | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Joker Boy | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eleuthera | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Thirsty Always | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zuboshi | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moose Mitchell | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. T’s Thirsty | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freedom’s Glory | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Buzz of New York (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rhythm and Grace | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sommer Daisy (FR) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Buy American | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Aventapp | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lookintogeteven | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cliffsofthunder (GB) | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Floral Essence | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Ruby’s Orchid | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Focaccina | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | La Gioiosa (FR) | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jubilee Lake (GB) | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 98 | Bellize | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Flipping Fast | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Test Drive | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Charge Cash | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Diva’s Finale | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gator Shining | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Goldeneyed | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Enough Nonsense | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ascot Storm | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 98 | Maximum Risk | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John C. Mabee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Fast Jet Court (BRZ) | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maxim Rate | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dogtag | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tapwater | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Going to Vegas | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bodhicitta (GB) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nasty | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Secretary | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | She’s Our Charm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Corniche | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Breakfast Ride | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apprehend | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dancing Rinca | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cover Me Up | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quality Wins | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Mason | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Handy Dandy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War At Sea | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conch Daddy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Elevado | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | No Limitation | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Katonah | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Drink the Wind | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Del Mar Derby Presented By Caesars Sportsbook
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Zoffarelli (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hudson Ridge | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Sword Zorro (IRE) | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Foolery Here | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Flashiest | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Crew Dragon | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hockey Dad | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Barraza | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lincoln Hawk (IRE) | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | None Above the Law | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jimmy Blue Jeans | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 98 | Optimistic Valor | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Cathkin Peak (IRE) | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Petruchio | 20.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.