Sports from the Basement

Del Mar Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 4, 2021

September 4, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vetoed 2.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Sumo 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Encroachment 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Cali Bay (IRE) 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dixie’s Two Stents 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Grandconcourse Guy 12.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Solo Animo 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Lord M 20.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Koko’s Kandy 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 98 Star Sailor 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Irish Heatwave 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Fly to Mars 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Barristan The Bold (GB) 4.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Ian Glass 4.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Blameless 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Southern Horse (ARG) 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 The Black Album (FR) 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Appreciated 15.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Feast 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Took Charge 1.60 2.3 4-1
5 5 Sabuda 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Augusta Melody 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 Holden the Lute 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Ka’nah 2.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Hawk Hill 12.00 4.2 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cant Stop This Man 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Roadside 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Allaboutthemoney 3.50 4.5 9-1
7 7 Primer Dimer 10.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Harbor Sky 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Da Kine 5.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Abi Gezunt 8.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Gone Rogue 10.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 K P Silver Bullet 6.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Lucky Chance 20.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Mongol Altai 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Bold Voyager 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tiz Vicious 2.50 SCRATCH
14 98 Revisionist 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Queen Goddess 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Miss Bella Ciao 3.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Basilia 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Can’thelpfallin (IRE) 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Moraz 2.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Fi Fi Pharoah 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 For the Good Times 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Sweet Pearl 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Magical Thought 30.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – I’m Smokin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rock N Rye 1.80 1.6 3-1
3 3 Joker Boy 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Eleuthera 12.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Thirsty Always 2.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Zuboshi 4.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Moose Mitchell 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Mr. T’s Thirsty 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Freedom’s Glory 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Buzz of New York (IRE) 2.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 Rhythm and Grace 5.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Sommer Daisy (FR) 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Buy American 12.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Aventapp 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Lookintogeteven 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Cliffsofthunder (GB) 20.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Floral Essence 4.00 6.8 13-1
13 12 Ruby’s Orchid 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Focaccina 12.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 La Gioiosa (FR) 15.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Jubilee Lake (GB) 30.00 9.1 17-1
12 98 Bellize 0.00 SCRATCH
14 13 Flipping Fast 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Test Drive 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Charge Cash 2.50 3.2 6-1
7 6 Diva’s Finale 2.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Gator Shining 3.50 4.5 9-1
3 2 Goldeneyed 8.00 6 11-1
8 7 Enough Nonsense 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Ascot Storm 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 98 Maximum Risk 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John C. Mabee S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Fast Jet Court (BRZ) 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Maxim Rate 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Dogtag 3.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Tapwater 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Going to Vegas 4.00 4 8-1
6 6 Bodhicitta (GB) 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Nasty 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Quiet Secretary 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 She’s Our Charm 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Corniche 1.80 2 4-1
4 4 Breakfast Ride 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Apprehend 4.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Dancing Rinca 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Cover Me Up 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Quality Wins 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Mr. Mason 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Handy Dandy 15.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 War At Sea 15.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Conch Daddy 15.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Elevado 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 No Limitation 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Katonah 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Drink the Wind 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Del Mar Derby Presented By Caesars Sportsbook

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Zoffarelli (IRE) 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Hudson Ridge 4.50 5.9 11-1
13 12 Sword Zorro (IRE) 5.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 No Foolery Here 8.00 6.6 13-1
14 13 Flashiest 6.00 7.5 14-1
12 11 Crew Dragon 8.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Hockey Dad 8.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Barraza 12.00 8.9 17-1
11 10 Lincoln Hawk (IRE) 20.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 None Above the Law 12.00 9.1 17-1
10 9 Jimmy Blue Jeans 12.00 9.5 18-1
6 98 Optimistic Valor 0.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Cathkin Peak (IRE) 12.00 10.5 20-1
7 6 Petruchio 20.00 12.6 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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