Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, August 29, 2021

August 29, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 High Heater 3.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Moonachie 0.80 2.8 5-1
6 6 First Homestead 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Full Salute 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 The Great Dansky 10.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Hushion 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Freudian Sip 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Charleston Strong 2.00 1.7 3-1
11 10 Everesting 3.50 2 4-1
6 5 Uncle Mo’s Cat 8.00 2.9 6-1
5 4 Partner’s Hope 5.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Rogers Ginger 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Ring of Fire 8.00 3.8 7-1
1A 1 Congrats for Glory 12.00 3.9 7-1
3A 2 Not Stormy 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Shackle Cat 15.00 5 10-1
8 7 Theregoesmymiracle 30.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Camouflaged Kisser 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 4 Sacred Life (FR) 1.20 1.6 3-1
3 2 Analyze It 2.00 2 4-1
1 1 Breaking the Rules 3.00 2.4 4-1
4 3 Bodecream 5.00 3.4 6-1
7 5 Made You Look 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Chris and Dave 3.50 SCRATCH
5A 5 American Power 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Bronx Bomber 1.60 1.4 3-1
2 2 Perfect Munnings 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Blue Gator 6.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Bourbon Bay 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 Blewitt 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Daddy Knows 12.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Too Early 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mommasgottarun 3.00 1.3 2-1
7 6 A Mo Reay 4.00 1.7 3-1
10 9 Distinctlypossible 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Soaring 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 Fannie and Freddie 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Run for the Hills 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Gerrymander 10.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Rosebug 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 10 Our Souper Love 12.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Oh Mrs. Maisel 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Afilada 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Vagaries (IRE) 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 2 Gun Boat 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 5 Bali Belle 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 3 Kinchen (IRE) 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Pearl Earring 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 8 Openthegate 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Hail To 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Barrett 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 1 Alittleloveandluck 20.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Avignon 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Pacific Grove 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Belle Gosse 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Montauk Daddy 2.50 3.2 6-1
7 6 Determined Fury 6.00 4.6 9-1
12 10 Charlie Five O 4.50 4.7 9-1
4 3 Stanhope 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Elusive Edge 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Bardolino 15.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Air Show 10.00 8.5 16-1
9 8 Wild William 12.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 American Gentleman 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 American d’Oro 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Trash Talker 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hoopla 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Our Troubadour 15.00 10.3 19-1
3 2 Loaded Joe 20.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beau Liam 0.80 1.6 3-1
4 4 Night Time 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Cost Basis 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Girolamo’s Attack 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Amundson 10.00 6 11-1
3 3 Mr Phil 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Yodel E. A. Who 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Morning Breez 20.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Ragtime Blues 20.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Better Talk Now S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sifting Sands (GB) 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Ranger Fox 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Straw Into Gold 3.50 3 6-1
6 6 In Effect 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Dr Jack 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Wolfie’s Dynaghost 8.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Dreamer’s Disease 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Danzigwiththestars 12.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Molino 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Chulainn 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Made My Day (IRE) 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Count Down 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Calibogee 12.00 4 8-1
11 11 Lord Flintshire 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Girl Dad 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Jarreau 6.00 5 9-1
9 9 Landbiscuit 5.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Gateway Guardian 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Parade Field 20.00 7.5 14-1
13 12 Assiduously (GB) 15.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Scotty 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Advance Notice 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Wartime Hero 2.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mr. Briggs 1.80 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
3rd - 8:30
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Final
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Final
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4th - 5:50
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4th - 3:16
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4th - 4:35
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3rd - 2:16
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3rd - 3:25
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2nd - 0:00
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