August 28, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Sweeping Giant | 2.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Royal Spirit | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Electability | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Doctor Davis | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Speaking Scout | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Spin Wheel | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Martini’nmoonshine | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Daunt | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chileno | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Gruden | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | So Determined | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jack Christopher | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Be Better | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Perry | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Back to Normal | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hoist the Gold | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Steinbeck | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Illustrious | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Golden Plume | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Love And Thunder (IRE) | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Secret Time (GER) | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Vividly (GB) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kitten by the Sea | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Sparkling Sky | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Windfall Profit | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Princess Fawzia | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trinni Luck | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Ballston Spa S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kalifornia Queen (GER) | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Viadera (GB) | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tamahere (FR) | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | New York Girl (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Opinion | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Platinum Paynter | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Whittington Park | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brady’s Legacy | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Bobby | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Koosman | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miracle Nicky | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bointheback | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eridromos | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Something Majestic | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Raw Courage | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Big Package | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Shiraz | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Charmed (GB) | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | After Five | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Christopher | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Mamba On Three | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Colton’s Command | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gins and Tins | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ampersand | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Baby Yoda | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Stage Left | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lomu | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ketel One Ballerina H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sconsin | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ce Ce | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gamine | 0.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Estilo Talentoso | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lake Avenue | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Casual | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Truth Hurts | 50.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Forego S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lexitonian | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mind Control | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whitmore | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yaupon | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Firenze Fire | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mischevious Alex | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Doubly Blessed | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chance It | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jackie’s Warrior | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drain the Clock | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Life Is Good | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Following Sea | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Judge N Jury | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Newbomb | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Personal Ensign S. Presented By Lia Infiniti
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Letruska | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swiss Skydiver | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | As Time Goes By | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bonny South | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Flag | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Graceful Princess | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Marissa | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dunbar Road | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tribhuvan (FR) | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Japan (GB) | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cross Border | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gufo | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Channel Maker | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moretti | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Runhappy Travers S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Essential Quality | 0.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Bourbon | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Keepmeinmind | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dynamic One | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Masqueparade | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miles D | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | King Fury | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Firefly | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sister Luck | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Home for Christmas | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tessler | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tales of Makenna | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Constitutionalrage | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spanish Dreamer | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Love’s Misery | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spun for Lu Lu | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grace in Motion | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elegant Laoban | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bella Principessa | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Killoean Rose | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Reeley Psyched | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | She’s On Point | 50.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Decreed | 50.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.