Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 27, 2021

August 27, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mary of Bethany 4.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 U Can Do It 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Stopshoppingamy 4.50 3.2 6-1
7 6 Field Letters 2.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Gramercy 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Lady Atlantic 6.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Dawn’s Dancer 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mr. Eleventh Hour 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Dick the Bruiser 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Z U At the Races 4.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Mister Charming 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Talis Park Grad 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Gemo Rain 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Branco Maria 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Deep Dish 6.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Fudge Brownie 12.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Grapevine 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 I Love to Race 2.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Avasarala 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Cave Creek 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Sugar and Sass 3.00 6 11-1
9 8 Tiz a Queen 4.50 6.5 12-1
6 6 Ozette 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 My My Munny 3.00 1.5 3-1
8 7 Hostile Princess 20.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Fine Cotton 5.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Sharp Hero 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Maid of Honor 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Joan’s Way 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Perfect Diva 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Colorofacloud 8.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Governors Wraith 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Gagoots 1.60 1.1 2-1
1 1 Just Ben 10.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Cachaco 15.00 1.5 3-1
6 5 Draw the Line 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 6 Semi Charmed Day 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Yalikeanything 2.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Half Cocked 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Two Cookie Rule 12.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Packed House 3.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Dollar Blue 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Tornado Boy 4.00 4 8-1
6 6 Danville 2.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Battle Creek 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Policy Option 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Edison Fire 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Galahad Kid 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 6 Upham 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Dark Wood (IRE) 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Smiling Silas 4.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Dewy’s Hit 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 5 Overpraise 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Giant’s Forrest 15.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Dang It Cassie 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 War Chest 3.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Barleewon 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Capt. Maestri 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Red Flag Alert 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 6 One Way Home 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Temper Tantrum 3.00 5 9-1
5 4 First Masamune 5.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Mkar the Fast 30.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Oncoming Train 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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