Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 21, 2021

August 21, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Triple Elvis 2.50 1.7 3-1
7A 6 Major General 3.00 2.2 4-1
3A 3 Napa Valley 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 8 Raymond 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Fan the Fire 6.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Bourbon Heist 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Gilded Age 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Judge Davis 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Union Lights 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zainalarab 1.40 1.1 2-1
4 4 Portilla 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Dial Me Up 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Primacy 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Halo City 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Smart N Fancy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Piedi Bianchi 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Lead Guitar 1.20 2.5 5-1
1 1 Robin Sparkles 1.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Hydra 30.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Pacific Gale 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Know It All Red 5.00 2.7 5-1
11 9 Tangerine Dream 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Tellaperfecttale 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Maria’s Gift 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Escapology 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bonana Fanna Foe 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Handle the Truth 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Sassy Belle 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Decreed 30.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Undetectable 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Prairie Tales 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 Tiergan 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 3 Too Early 1.20 2.9 5-1
5 2 Matty’s Express 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 5 Good Old Boy 3.50 3.4 6-1
9 6 Six Percent 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 4 Chic N Wilbur 20.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Regal Speaker 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Quiet Out East 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ghost Giant 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Big Q 3.00 3.1 6-1
10 5 Beautiful Karen 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Betsy Blue 1.40 3.7 7-1
11 6 Fair Regis 6.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Kinky Sox 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 4 The Important One 8.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Awsum Roar 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Silky Blue 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Purrageous Dyna 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Kokopelli 1.60 SCRATCH
9 9 Saratoga Love 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My Prankster 2.50 1.3 3-1
9 9 Cogburn 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Seal Beach 4.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Reserve Currency 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Bellinger 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Skate to Heaven 12.00 5 9-1
3 3 Triumphant Road 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Fromanothamutha 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Southern Sense 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 El Sobreviviente 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 2 Identity Politics 1.80 2.7 5-1
2 1 Golani Brigade 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 3 Charlie Five O 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 6 Therisastormbrewin 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 5 American Rule 30.00 5.6 11-1
10 7 Respect for All 50.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Restoring Hope 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Vulcan 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Striking Speed 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Spanish Loveaffair 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Technical Analysis (IRE) 1.20 2.6 5-1
3 3 Ego Trip (IRE) 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Runaway Rumour 3.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Lovestruck 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Illiogami 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alabama S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Malathaat 1.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Maracuja 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Army Wife 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Crazy Beautiful 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Clairiere 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Played Hard 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Will’s Secret 15.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 5 Perfect Grace 0.60 2.8 5-1
6 3 Ingress 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Epona Bay 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Good Talk 30.00 8.7 17-1
8 4 Rhombique 30.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Gauff (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Split Then Double (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Gailhorsewind 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Miss Bonnie T 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 So Enchanting 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Let’s Go Native 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mayhap 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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