Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 20, 2021

August 20, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Constancia 15.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 First Squadron 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Drama Run 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Nothins Free 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Bobbie too Too 3.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Hoppestry 2.50 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 American Chaos 3.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Dare Goes Da Devil 8.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Adios Asher 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Star On the Map 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Omaha Red 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Dream Island 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Winter’s Ghost 12.00 4.1 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 The Last Fact 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Little Toot 8.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Navy Pier 2.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Kingsburry Attack 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Artie and Jessie 20.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Cold Birdie 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Inside the Circle 1.80 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Irish Halo 12.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Winning Quality 8.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Estardo 4.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Me too Mo 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Midnight Frost 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Blues Mary 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Hey Hey 3.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Tiz Susan Ann 3.50 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Son of Grace 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Julio Tutwiler 12.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Andthethunderrolls 2.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Kit Kowaleski 10.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Fifty One Ninety 20.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Irish Tuff 5.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Off to the Beach 3.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Dreamful 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Serene 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 6 Ollie’s Gold 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Katie M’lady 2.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Sunny One 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Varsity Flygirl 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Gastown 3.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 She’s Wandaful 15.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Tale of the Nile 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Shanghai Point 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Mias Moonbeam 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Grand Hideaway 6.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Splash for Gold 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Tre Lee Divine 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Diddley 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dive Deep 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 7 Jettin Out 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Desoto’s War 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Skip the Smalltalk 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 On the Muscle 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Yalikeanything 5.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Stormin El Prado 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Moon Flash 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Last Spring 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Macho Classic 20.00 6 11-1
7 7 Mister Kelly 3.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Clear to Close 30.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.