Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 19, 2021

August 19, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 True Castle 1.40 1.9 4-1
2 2 Anna’s Fast 1.60 2 4-1
5 4 Violent Point 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 She’s a Black Belt 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Sweet Mia 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Big Scully 1.40 1.4 3-1
1 1 Pipito 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 St. Lukes 4.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Sailor Speed 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Street Hustle 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Inevtabl Conection 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Osbourne 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Rosey’s Peach 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Tenderness 2.50 2.4 5-1
6 3 Jen’s Battle 4.50 3.4 6-1
9 5 Jasminesque 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 4 Sky Kitten 20.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Corey Scores 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wicked Amber 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Quasar 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Smooth Pebble 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 More Moonshine 1.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Misty Veil 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Stop Shoppin Tammy 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Ice Princess 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Maoilin 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Family Time 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Silver Strand 1.80 1.3 2-1
3 3 Shalimar Gardens 3.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 O’Gotten Girl 2.00 2 4-1
4 4 Sarah Harper 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mun Luv 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Boss Cara 30.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Thegoddessofsnakes 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gold Panda 1.20 1.4 3-1
6 6 Fenway 1.40 2 4-1
3 3 V Pattern 8.00 2 4-1
1 1 Seizer 8.00 2 4-1
7 7 Got the Gold 12.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Forty Comets 20.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Oliver’s Fortune 20.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 On the Dean’s List 50.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Claytnthelionheart 1.80 1.9 4-1
11 6 Backsideofthemoon 3.50 2.8 5-1
10 5 Thomas Shelby 2.00 2.8 5-1
5 2 Dynadrive 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 3 Fortuity 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Pretty Good Year 30.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Olympico (FR) 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Shamrocket 1.20 SCRATCH
4 4 Opry 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Kinenos 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gunnison 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lightning Lou (IRE) 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Suspended Campaign 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 3 Battle Bling 4.50 4.4 8-1
9 5 Kerik 10.00 7.2 14-1
7 4 Vegas Weekend 10.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Gambling Cat 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Coworth Park 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kitten With a Whip 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Triple Digit 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Joqular 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Caramocha 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Union Avenue H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sadie Lady 0.40 2 4-1
3 2 Irish Constitution 5.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Diva Banker 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Awesome Debate 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Hannah Dances 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Lot of Honey 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Marvelous Maude 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 3 Pop the Bubbly 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 4 Raining Candy 20.00 4.7 9-1
9 5 Miss Flintshire 20.00 4.9 9-1
12 6 Vivazano 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Hiya Harry 30.00 6.6 12-1
2A 2 Acushla 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hit the Nail 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 La Victoria 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tingling Mint 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Saluki 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Tapple Cider 10.00 SCRATCH
13A 13 Cali Fitz 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mill Stone Creek 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
3rd - 12:07
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Final
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Final
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4th - 7:46
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4th - 4:56
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4th - 7:31
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3rd - 5:12
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3rd - 6:17
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2nd - 1:10
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