August 19, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ballybrack Lass | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Chick | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Satiate | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kuringai | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Up Smarty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Way too Smarte | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Lady Brexit | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sense of Self | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Good Mongolia | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Watchin the Wheels | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | April’s Gem | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sensible Myth | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Charlo | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Manhattan Legacy | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lion Love | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rank and File | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lipliner | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Attack | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dressed | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Clare | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Z | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Force of Inertia | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chinkara | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zazzy Zazzy Dazzle | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chacalosa | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Maximus Image | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Andreas | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | And Won | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Half of Manhattan | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fort Ridge | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Driver Dan | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | McHenry | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baroque | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Venetian Dream | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | White Mist | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Radiant Castle | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Upham | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Azrael | 1.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dancin Nicky | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Roar of the Lion | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cloud to Ground | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kerns Not Kearns | 4.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Meataball | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unpredictable Bay | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harmon Killer Brew | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baltic Fleet | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ronstadt | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Side Bet | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jim and Jim | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sport Pepper | 4.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.