August 18, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Sheppard H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | The Mean Queen (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baltimore Bucko (GB) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Redicean (GB) | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gibralfaro (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | French Light (FR) | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | City Dreamer (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Recent Revelations (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A Silent Player (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cantrell Hill | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Free Enterprise | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Easy Shot | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Out Beautiful | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Create Again | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Somebody | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Morning Matcha | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Monshun | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sea Pines | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | G Money Liv | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lockstep | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fiftyshadesofrun | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Love Unlimited | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pout | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Call Sign Charlie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blewitt | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Villainous | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Universal Payday | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kumar | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Storm | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heavy Roller | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | Lemieux | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shine | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Princess Teruko | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Decree of Love | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Ready for Charm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Diamond Hands | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gun Boat | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Highly Devauxted | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Vagaries (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Crowding Out | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sand and Sea | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Domina | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Thegoddessofsnakes | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Let Them Eat Cake | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arch of Fire | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Venus Oyzo | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Genetic Gem | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gailhorsewind | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Targeted Return | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Before You | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadeau de Paix | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Air Cavalry | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bayshore Foxes | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Raffinity | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | April Antics | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chloe Rose | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Musical America | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taos | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Parlor | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Attentive | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Troubling Moon | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Artemus Bridge | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Castagno | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Seismic Wave | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Morocco | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Soulmate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hieroglyphics | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Poppy Flower | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fulminate | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Derrynane | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flip My Id | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kneesnhips | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chi Town Lady | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlee O | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stand Up Comic | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cartel Queen | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Landslid | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Averly Jane | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Golden Bell | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Clear Humor | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Multiple Expansion | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stonecoldwarrior | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | D’vinicris | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Damilano | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Capt’ Remington | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brother Jeremiah | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Production Credit | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | A Colt Named Susie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.