August 18, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mango Tree | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Agave Kid | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Niles Channel | 1.40 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frontier Charlie | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Will Ya Win Sum | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three Amigos (FR) | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Powerful Man | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cachaco | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zarmae | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tom’s Last General | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Cocked | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Munch | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Just Ben | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chisler | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Blooming Garden | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Maga Country | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | King Zion | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Chocolate Bunny | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocket Ride | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dream Attack | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | San Star | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ain’t She Dahrlin | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss High N Mighty | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Goshen Girl | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stacy Attack | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fox Able Charlie | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s So Cali | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Luscious | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Joan’s Way | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Oncewewerebrothers | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southsider | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Road Game | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Will Knows | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gumwrapper | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nyoman | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dom the Bomb | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tre Lee Divine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Benelux | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Chest | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gate Crew | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Bariley | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Barleewon | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tornado Boy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Green Mo’ster | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tap the Mojo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Changi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sniper Kitten | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Poppy’s Boys | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Convict Pike | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dick the Bruiser | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Urbanite | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dewy’s Hit | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Overpraise | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smiling Silas | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Majestic Day | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dramatic Kitten | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Talis Park Grad | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cosmic Treasure | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Upham | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bumptybumpbump | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.