August 15, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Good Skate | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silipo | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | John’s Protege | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pickering Circle | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Baja Fog | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skeptical | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paynt Your Wagon | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Remember Normandy | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Kiss the Sky | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ansel | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Flip the Script | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Street Vendor | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | King of Sting | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Fight | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Baj | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Commander Compton | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Never Say Know (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Chileno | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Bellinger | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Major General | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dream of a Day | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Social Whirl | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Defy Expectations | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Herald Angel | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fuddled (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Dutch Girl | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ginger Kitty | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy Melissa | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fillmore East | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High School Crush | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ava K’s Girl | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | A Ring Thing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Water’s Edge | 0.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Devil’s Code | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Pal | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quickflash | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Him She Kisses | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Samay | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Jester Calls Nojoy | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Positive Sum | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tap N Glo | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Knowing Glance | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Stroll | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gimmick | 12.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aaliyah Ezri | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nonna Tee | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Union Dolly | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Celestial | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Black Licorice | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Write This Down | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Monet | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prairie Tales | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Orma | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | New York Supreme | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Roxen | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ethel’s Doctorate | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Happy Hill Lil | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tootsie’s Song | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Idaka | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Undetectable | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Never Explain | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Treason | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Shady McGee (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mira Mission | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shawdyshawdyshawdy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Eyes On Target | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sigiloso | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Future Victory | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Devils Sky | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Agent Creed | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yearn for Victory | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hilliard | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Business Model | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Camp Hope | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Absolute Love | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mongolian Humor | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Subsidiary | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Customerexperience | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Persian Queen | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Yes I’m Evil | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Viradia | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jessica | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Galway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tuscan Queen | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Goin’ Good | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bye Bye | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Star Devine (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dr B | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mischiefful | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Li’l Tootsie | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wink | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alwayz Late | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | What a Trick | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Summer Brew | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Amortization (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Italian Twin | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer in the City | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mirabell Mei | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Babe | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kubie Snacks | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sengekontacket | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freddymo Factor | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Miss Mamba | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Princess Pinky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Suspended Campaign | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bayshore Foxes | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Courted | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Appreciate | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Adriatic Rose | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mazal Eighteen | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.