Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 14, 2021

August 14, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 King Angelo 2.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Suit of Armor 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Giramonte 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 King Moonracer 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 6 Brian’s Mission 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 The Great Gazoo 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Dashing Circles 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 War Smoke 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Askin for a Baskin 1.60 2 4-1
9 9 Laughing Boy 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sticky Issue 6.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Ubiquitous 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Flint Ridge 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Soar 15.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Sound Money 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Immortalization 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Canyouhearmenow 50.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Absam 2.00 2.2 4-1
11A 8 Atone 2.00 2.4 5-1
9 6 St. Joe Louis (GB) 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Lonesome Fugitive (IRE) 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Klickitat 5.00 3.8 7-1
10 7 Cold Hard Cash 6.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Alley Oop Johnny 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Tapaloof 20.00 8.7 17-1
4 4 Fair Haired Boy 20.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 First Line 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fingal 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Investment Income 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Palamos (GB) 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Baby Blythe 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Point Wild 8.00 5 10-1
5A 5 Fleeting Glimpse 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Mezcal 10.00 5.4 10-1
4A 4 American Heiress (GB) 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Tekila 10.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Empress Theodora 15.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Popizar 4.50 2.6 5-1
9 8 Wagon Boss 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Win With Pride 3.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Baby I’m Perfect 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Sicilia Mike 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Regal Quality 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Hammerin Aamer 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Honorable Service 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Inscom 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Power Agenda 1.80 1.4 3-1
10 10 Montauk Point 3.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 General Strike 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Urban Forest 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Don’t Wait Up 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 I’ll Figure It Out 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Duke of Edinburgh 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Wild Appeal 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Mike J 20.00 7 13-1
7 7 Magical Knight 30.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Back to Normal 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Major General 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Assiduously (GB) 2.50 4 8-1
4 4 Restored Order 3.50 4.4 8-1
6 6 Extreme Force 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 K. K. Ichikawa 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Amistad 12.00 8 15-1
13 12 Voliero 12.00 8.1 15-1
11 10 Holy Emperor 12.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Big Blue 12.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 More Like It 12.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Bricco 12.00 9.3 18-1
10 9 Justintimeforwine 15.00 10 19-1
9 9 Public Information 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Irish Giant 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cousin Andrew 2.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Scotto 6.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Eucharist 20.00 14.7 28-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 4 Mahaamel 2.00 2 4-1
7A 6 Ashiham 2.00 2 4-1
2 2 Ten for Ten 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Speaker’s Corner 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Defeater 8.00 4 8-1
8 7 Will Sing for Wine 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Meister 20.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Mr. Tip 30.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Ducale 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saratoga Special S. Presented By Miller Lite

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Doctor Jeff 2.00 2.1 4-1
7 5 Double Thunder 6.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Gunite 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 4 Stolen Base 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Nakatomi 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 9 High Oak 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 8 Glacial 15.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Ottoman Empire 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 7 Dance Code 15.00 5.7 11-1
12 10 Red Run 30.00 9.3 17-1
4 4 Kitodan 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Midnight Worker 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fourstardave H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Raging Bull (FR) 1.80 2.2 4-1
4 4 Casa Creed 4.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Set Piece (GB) 2.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Field Pass 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Blowout (GB) 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Got Stormy 10.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Daddy Is a Legend 20.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Whisper Not (GB) 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Neuro 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Dr. Blute 3.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Luna’s in Charge 5.00 4 8-1
9 9 Dr. Duke 4.50 4 8-1
6 6 Halpert 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Clamor 10.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Phantom Smoke 5.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Frat 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Volkert 15.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 High Limit Room 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Our Troubadour 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Big Wonder 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ninth Hour 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Him She Kisses 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beautiful Karen 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Mommie’s Jewel 30.00 12.6 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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