August 14, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Khozan’s Success | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Absolute Chaos | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Science (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kosher Cowboy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Well Told | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Medal of Fact | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Navy Seal | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Isaac Murphy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chrome Attack | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rare Action Attack | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jolina | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Get None | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | White Lies | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Isabellacannetella | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jeff the Lion | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Greener Pastures | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | El Asesino | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Merlin’s Song | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lost in Manhattan | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | President Elect | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rip It Ryan | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Hide From Me | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Addison Cammack Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Locamotor | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Devileye | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Readthecliffnotes | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | What’s Up Dude | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Richiesinthehouse | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Richiesgotswagger | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | D’fever | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wile E Peyote | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Mike Spellman Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Strollin the Bayou | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Embarrassing | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bramble Queen | 1.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Launch Away | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Romantic Attack | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kingsbury Dream | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Summer Day | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Risky Risky Risky | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | White Lies | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Northern Alliance | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Pucker Up S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shantisara (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Double Blessed | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Serene | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shesa Mystery | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Time for Glory | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flown | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spritz | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oyster Box | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Beverly D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lemista (IRE) | 5.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bramble Queen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Naval Laughter | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Santa Barbara (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oh So Terrible | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mean Mary | 1.80 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bruce D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Point Me By | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tango Tango Tango | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ginsburned | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Like a Saltshaker | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King of Miami | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Universe | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | New Year Surprise | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Therideofalifetime | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shadizaar | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mr. D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Space Traveller (GB) | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glynn County | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bizzee Channel | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zulu Alpha | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Another Mystery | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Domestic Spending (GB) | 1.20 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Emmys | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Armory (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Dreaming | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Strong Tide | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Black Tie Affair S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Iwillpersevere | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fly Nightly | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Another Mystery | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Cammack | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tuff Attack | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Readthecliffnotes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Richiesgotgame | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bulldog of Bergen | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | D’fever | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Temper Tantrum | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.