August 13, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ned Christie | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Outrider | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Lay | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classofsixtyseven | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ruler Daenerys | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sway to Go | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Tommy Lee | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Graciana | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Missen the Point | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spitz | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | English | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Guerrerita | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Godsgift | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hoodwink | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cookin Roses | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Antecedence | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arbitrary | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Coni’s Coup | 4.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Good Yegg | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dynablue | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Polito | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Myuddermamasapaint | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Power Through | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Rag Tag | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Prayer | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Quality Hour | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Retain | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tea After Ballet | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Owl | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Tuff | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Off to the Beach | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fifty One Ninety | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Son of Grace | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Kit Kowaleski | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Julio Tutwiler | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Andthethunderrolls | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chapel Barn | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bora Bora | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Giant’s Forrest | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River Finn | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go for Sherrie | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lake Mills | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lastfortinofamily | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indian Sign | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ride Richie Ride | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Suprise Cat | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Z U Soon | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Get Hammered | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aggressivity | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cyril’s Boy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Grove Daddy | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Two Worlds | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Frontana | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Merlin’s Song | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Savage | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.