Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, August 11, 2021

August 11, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Admiral Halsey 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Castle Leoch 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Munny Bolt 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Java Buzz 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Labarde 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Red Danger 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Snow Candy 10.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Wild Appeal 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Extra Effort 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Addilyn 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 5 Bustin Bay 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 4 Stunning Munnings 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Left Leaning Lucy 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Mebs Web 30.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Flower’s Fortune 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Effiemeister 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Evan Shipman H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Danny California 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mr. Buff 1.40 2.2 4-1
4 4 Three Jokers 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sea Foam 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Winston’s Chance 6.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gotta Go Mo 1.40 2.2 4-1
1 1 Richies Great Girl 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Too Sexy 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Secure Connection 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Tass 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Strong Odor 10.00 6.1 12-1
7 6 Tiple (IRE) 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 True Castle 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tivoli Twirl 1.60 1.3 3-1
3 3 Kaden 5.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Blitz to Win 1.20 1.9 4-1
6 6 Lucky Brody 10.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Anejo 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 My Brother Neil 10.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Reunion Tour 50.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ms Penelopepitstop 1.60 1.3 2-1
4 4 Starship Dreams 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Bonkers 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Wildwood Flash 10.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Adele Kat 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Shining Colors 5.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 My Sunny Valentine 15.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Madame Rose 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 8 Town Avenger 3.50 2.5 5-1
10 7 Jordan’s Leo 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Miss Delicious 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Magisterium (IRE) 6.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Lisheen 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Earth Strike (IRE) 8.00 6.4 12-1
12 9 Alydiva 10.00 7.5 14-1
9 6 Community Adjusted 10.00 7.6 14-1
8 5 Island Treasure 15.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Misty Veil 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bayshore Foxes 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Elle Est Forte 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Diva Banker 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Trinni Luck 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Honey Money 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 My Roxy Girl 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Betsy Blue 1.80 2.7 5-1
1 1 Fight On Lucy 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Awillaway 20.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mahony S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Into the Sunrise 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Sky’s Not Falling 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 4 Momos 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 5 Arrest Me Red 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Fauci 15.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Jaxon Traveler 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Fire Sword 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Awesome Gerry 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Rebel Posse 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Viking Zim 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Clever Fellow 1.20 2.9 5-1
8 7 Ghostmon 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Flintshire’s Rock 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 2 Straight Skinny 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Brew Pub 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 11 Cox’s Ledge 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Feyderspiel 20.00 6.8 13-1
7 6 Arrowheart 20.00 7.3 14-1
9 8 Addicted to You 30.00 9.2 17-1
11 10 Loulovestheriver 30.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Spiritual King 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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