August 11, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Admiral Halsey | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Castle Leoch | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Munny Bolt | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Java Buzz | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Labarde | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Danger | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snow Candy | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wild Appeal | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Extra Effort | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Addilyn | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bustin Bay | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Stunning Munnings | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Left Leaning Lucy | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mebs Web | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flower’s Fortune | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Effiemeister | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Evan Shipman H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Danny California | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Buff | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Three Jokers | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Foam | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Winston’s Chance | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gotta Go Mo | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Richies Great Girl | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Too Sexy | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Secure Connection | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tass | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Odor | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiple (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | True Castle | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tivoli Twirl | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kaden | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blitz to Win | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Brody | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Anejo | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Brother Neil | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Reunion Tour | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ms Penelopepitstop | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Starship Dreams | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bonkers | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wildwood Flash | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Adele Kat | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shining Colors | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Sunny Valentine | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Town Avenger | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Jordan’s Leo | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Delicious | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magisterium (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lisheen | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Earth Strike (IRE) | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Alydiva | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Community Adjusted | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Island Treasure | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Misty Veil | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bayshore Foxes | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Elle Est Forte | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Diva Banker | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trinni Luck | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honey Money | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Roxy Girl | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Betsy Blue | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fight On Lucy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Awillaway | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mahony S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Into the Sunrise | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sky’s Not Falling | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Momos | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Arrest Me Red | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fauci | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jaxon Traveler | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Fire Sword | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Gerry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Rebel Posse | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Viking Zim | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clever Fellow | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ghostmon | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flintshire’s Rock | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Straight Skinny | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brew Pub | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cox’s Ledge | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Feyderspiel | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arrowheart | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Addicted to You | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Loulovestheriver | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spiritual King | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.