August 7, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Boston Flagship | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gooch Go Bragh | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dripping Gold | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Speak Unity | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morning Thoughts | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Slim Slow Slider | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Piqua | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Steal the Cash | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Under the Gun | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | K Club | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heirloom Kitten | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Journeyman | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zoomer | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alkhaatam | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grumps Little Tots | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Peck | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shotski | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Newbomb | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stage Left | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dream Bigger | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Life Changer | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ampersand | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tuggle | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Shutters | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ruse | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sportini | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Athenry | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hot Doctor | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Castle | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Umbria | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sandro the Great | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Panda | 0.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dreampoint | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Brigadier General | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Keepcalmcarryon | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stellar Tap | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Skipper | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vodka Mardini | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Immokalee | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Imminent Storm | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Martini’nmoonshine | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Predicted | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seal Beach | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Lure S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Flavius | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Delaware (GB) | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tell Your Daddy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | South Bend | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Dreams of Tomorrow | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Temple | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fighting Seabee | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tacitus | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Value Proposition (GB) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Tea Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Guildsman (FR) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ballagh Rocks | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Glens Falls S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | War Like Goddess | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Sister Nat (FR) | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dalika (GER) | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Temple City Terror | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Call Me Love (GB) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luck Money | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orglandes (FR) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Longines Test S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Obligatory | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Search Results | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Always Carina | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Souper Sensational | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Sofia | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zaajel | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Illumination | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Make Mischief | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saratoga Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cadillac (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Secret Protector | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | State of Rest (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | King Fury | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Soldier Rising (GB) | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Du Jour | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cellist | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yes This Time | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Palazzi | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flashiest | 20.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Whitney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Knicks Go | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maxfield | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silver State | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Swiss Skydiver | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | By My Standards | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Danny California | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Empty Tomb | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Superfecto | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Risk Taking | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Air Attack | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lost in Rome | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chestertown | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candy Tycoon | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Musical Heart | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Sussex Garden (IRE) | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Miner’s Queen | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Risky Mischief | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Time Limit | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bay Storm | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Spicy Marg | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Bay Jewel | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Back Channel | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Off We Go | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Harper’s in Charge | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Train to Artemus | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Easy to Bless | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Madam Maclean | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.