Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 7, 2021

August 7, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Boston Flagship 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Gooch Go Bragh 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Dripping Gold 4.50 3.4 6-1
8 7 Speak Unity 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Morning Thoughts 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 8 Slim Slow Slider 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Piqua 10.00 7.6 14-1
7 6 Steal the Cash 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Under the Gun 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 K Club 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Tattoo (ARG) 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Heirloom Kitten 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Journeyman 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Zoomer 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Alkhaatam 6.00 4 8-1
8 7 Grumps Little Tots 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Fort Peck 10.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Shotski 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Newbomb 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 3 Stage Left 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 4 Dream Bigger 4.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Life Changer 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Ampersand 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Tuggle 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Shutters 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Ruse 3.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Sportini 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Athenry 8.00 6.2 12-1
10 8 Hot Doctor 10.00 7.2 14-1
8 6 Big Castle 12.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Umbria 12.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Sandro the Great 10.00 8 15-1
4 4 Gold Panda 0.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Dreampoint 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Brigadier General 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 2 Keepcalmcarryon 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 6 Stellar Tap 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Big Skipper 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Vodka Mardini 8.00 4.4 8-1
9 8 Immokalee 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Imminent Storm 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 3 Martini’nmoonshine 15.00 7.3 14-1
10 9 Predicted 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Seal Beach 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Lure S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Flavius 3.00 2.4 4-1
2 1 Delaware (GB) 4.50 2.5 5-1
7 5 Tell Your Daddy 8.00 3 6-1
9 6 South Bend 12.00 4.1 8-1
11 7 Dreams of Tomorrow 8.00 4.5 8-1
12 8 Temple 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 2 Fighting Seabee 20.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Tacitus 1.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Value Proposition (GB) 2.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Midnight Tea Time 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Guildsman (FR) 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Ballagh Rocks 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Glens Falls S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 War Like Goddess 1.60 2.4 5-1
5 5 My Sister Nat (FR) 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Dalika (GER) 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Temple City Terror 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Call Me Love (GB) 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Luck Money 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Orglandes (FR) 10.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Longines Test S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Obligatory 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Search Results 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Always Carina 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Souper Sensational 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Bella Sofia 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Zaajel 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Illumination 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Make Mischief 12.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saratoga Derby Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bolshoi Ballet (IRE) 2.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Cadillac (IRE) 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Secret Protector 6.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 State of Rest (IRE) 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 King Fury 10.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Soldier Rising (GB) 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Du Jour 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Cellist 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Yes This Time 15.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Palazzi 20.00 8.9 17-1
10 10 Flashiest 20.00 10.3 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Whitney S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Knicks Go 1.20 1.2 2-1
5 5 Maxfield 1.60 2.3 4-1
2 2 Silver State 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Swiss Skydiver 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 By My Standards 10.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Danny California 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Empty Tomb 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 Superfecto 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 2 Risk Taking 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Air Attack 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Lost in Rome 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Chestertown 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Candy Tycoon 12.00 7.6 14-1
1A 7 Musical Heart 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Sussex Garden (IRE) 4.00 2.4 5-1
11 8 Miner’s Queen 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 3 Risky Mischief 3.50 3.7 7-1
7 4 Time Limit 4.50 3.8 7-1
10 7 Bay Storm 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 6 Spicy Marg 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 5 Bay Jewel 10.00 6.1 12-1
12 9 Back Channel 12.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Off We Go 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Harper’s in Charge 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Train to Artemus 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Semble Juste (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Easy to Bless 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Madam Maclean 20.00 10.6 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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