August 7, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Maryanorginger | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Bit of Both | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Piece of My Heart | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ready for Change | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pretti Xtreme | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Richies Great Girl | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Zandrea’s | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | City Fun | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smack | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Windy City Girl | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rapid Transit | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | April’s Gem | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Alliance | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Estardo | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Blend | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Little Gert Go | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Susan Ann | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Business | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Atlantic | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Chicks for Free | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spinster Road | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Morriston | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mister Charming | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Souper Highvoltage | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Willow Ridge | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Change Direction | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Swoonatra | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Belle | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Queens Up | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Laura’s Charm | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freedom Rose | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oeuvre | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Way of Life | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fabulous Philly | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet N Sassy | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Sharon N. Kirby Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lily’s Woofy | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beyond Proper | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charlo | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cat Attack | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Avasarala | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Katie M’lady | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Manhattan Legacy | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Diva | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jolina | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Richard P. Hazelton Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | King Tito | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beealea | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Richiesgotgame | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flashy Richie | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Simple Logic | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Temper Tantrum | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mkar the Fast | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Valiant Vinny | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Putt Richie | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | All in a Dream | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Torn Jeans | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bells of Joy | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maid of Honor | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shush | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lizqueenfluerdelis | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ready At Midnight | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Colorofacloud | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.