Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 5, 2021

August 5, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mystic Eyes 1.40 1.3 2-1
2 2 I’m So Sorry 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Office Etiquette 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Raw Honey 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Cost a Fortune 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Mostly Harmless 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Love Unlimited 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 8 Whatruwaitingfor 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Sea Pines 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Danny Deep Cuts 1.40 1.3 2-1
2 2 Moon Over Ny 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Boomkittybyebye 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Queentigua 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Captivating Cara 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Fastelle 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Decreed 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Lass 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Discretionary Marq 4.00 2.7 5-1
8 6 War Stroll 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 4 Mystery Messenger 2.50 2.9 5-1
7 5 Chimney Rock 1.80 3.2 6-1
9 7 New York’s Finest 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 1 Encrypted (GB) 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 3 Full Salute 30.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Storm Advisory 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Ninth Hour 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Turn of Events 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Made My Day (IRE) 4.50 3.1 6-1
10 9 Risk Manager 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Bar Fourteen 4.00 4 7-1
6 6 Handy 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Chulainn 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Panster 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Montatham 12.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Wicked Indeed 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Irish Giant 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Him She Kisses 6.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Demo Doctor 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wartime Hero 0.80 2.3 4-1
8 8 Z’finale 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Swinging Sticks 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Chase Tracker 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Assembly Point (BRZ) 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Operative 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Super Wicked Charm 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Magnificent Chrome 20.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 No Time Alone 1.40 1.2 2-1
2 2 Disengage 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Boriman 6.00 3 6-1
4 3 Open Til Midnight 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 5 Butter Lou 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 6 Eridromos 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Red Rock Bay 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Chief Engineer 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Daufuskie Island 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Landbiscuit 2.50 3.2 6-1
9 9 Life On Top 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Calibogee 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Public Information 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Lord Flintshire 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Mr. Kringle 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Bad Guy 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Mystery Bank 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Sidd Finch 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Air Show 1.60 SCRATCH
12 12 Charlie Five O 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Spectatorless 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Our Man Mike 2.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Bingo John 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Irish Valor 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Bustin the Rules 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Quick Return 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Here’s Waldo 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Uncle Curly 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Joey Loose Lips 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Birdstone S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lone Rock 1.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 You’re to Blame 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Moretti 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Ry’s the Guy 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Rocketry 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Shooger Ray Too 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 He’s No Lemon 20.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Escapewithfriends 3.50 1.6 3-1
6A 6 Bella Principessa 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Mondeuse 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Lookin to Fly 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Lady Manhattan 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Out of Sight 12.00 5.1 10-1
9B 9 Memories Eternal 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Killoean Rose 15.00 7 13-1
10 9 Saigon 20.00 8 15-1
5 5 Love’s Misery 20.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Mill Stone Creek 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Spanish Dreamer 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hiya Harry 30.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 To the Tune 2.50 SCRATCH
15B 15 Home by Seven 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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