August 5, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Eyes | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’m So Sorry | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Office Etiquette | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raw Honey | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cost a Fortune | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mostly Harmless | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love Unlimited | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whatruwaitingfor | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sea Pines | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Danny Deep Cuts | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Over Ny | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boomkittybyebye | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queentigua | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Captivating Cara | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fastelle | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Decreed | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lass | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Discretionary Marq | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | War Stroll | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mystery Messenger | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Chimney Rock | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | New York’s Finest | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Encrypted (GB) | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Full Salute | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Advisory | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ninth Hour | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Turn of Events | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Made My Day (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Risk Manager | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bar Fourteen | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Handy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chulainn | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Panster | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Montatham | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wicked Indeed | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Irish Giant | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Him She Kisses | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Demo Doctor | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wartime Hero | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Z’finale | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swinging Sticks | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chase Tracker | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Assembly Point (BRZ) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Operative | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Wicked Charm | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magnificent Chrome | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | No Time Alone | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Disengage | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boriman | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Open Til Midnight | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Butter Lou | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Eridromos | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Rock Bay | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Chief Engineer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Daufuskie Island | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Landbiscuit | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Life On Top | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Calibogee | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Public Information | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lord Flintshire | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Kringle | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bad Guy | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mystery Bank | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sidd Finch | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Air Show | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Charlie Five O | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Spectatorless | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Our Man Mike | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bingo John | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Valor | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bustin the Rules | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Quick Return | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Here’s Waldo | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Uncle Curly | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joey Loose Lips | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Birdstone S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lone Rock | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | You’re to Blame | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moretti | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ry’s the Guy | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rocketry | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shooger Ray Too | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s No Lemon | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Escapewithfriends | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Bella Principessa | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mondeuse | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin to Fly | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Manhattan | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Out of Sight | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9B | 9 | Memories Eternal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Killoean Rose | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Saigon | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Love’s Misery | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mill Stone Creek | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Spanish Dreamer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hiya Harry | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | To the Tune | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15B | 15 | Home by Seven | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.