Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 5, 2021

August 5, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Angelino 3.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Storminside 1.60 1.9 4-1
3 2 Landofthepharaohs 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Baroque 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Hinton 4.50 4.2 8-1
4 3 Finnegan (IRE) 2.50 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mama Lou 1.80 1.3 2-1
2 2 Zip Attack Baby 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Ruler Daenerys 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Irina’s Hero 15.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Twelve Red Roses 2.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Aka Lioness 2.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 She’s Hot Today 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Rachelgotstephen 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Kuringai 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Chainmail 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Way too Smarte 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Present of Hero 3.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zidikai 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Lion Love 1.80 2.5 5-1
5 5 G City Warrior 3.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Kenai Cool 2.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Her Gold Mine 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Lillet 8.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Midnight Blue Note 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 3 Red Hot Devil 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Aggressivity 1.60 SCRATCH
1 1 Sturgill 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Olson 3.50 4.8 9-1
5 4 Star of Kodiak 4.00 5.3 10-1
2 1 Royal Commish 3.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Adios Asher 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 American Chaos 3.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Kerns Not Kearns 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Yo Dawg 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Ronstadt 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Magician Stone 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Baltic Fleet 15.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Convict Pike 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Tornado Boy 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 High Spirits 4.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 The Green Mo’ster 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Dramatic Kitten 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Campioni 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Danville 2.50 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 She’s a Big Star 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cave Creek 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Stack Shack 2.50 4.8 9-1
8 7 Unburnt 6.00 5 10-1
9 8 Zawadi 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Speak English 5.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Emily Bug 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Maystart 10.00 6.1 11-1
7 6 Magic Solution 3.50 6.2 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.