August 4, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Tapatino (FR) | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ritzy A. P. | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Withoutdestination (GB) | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Crescent (GB) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chetzeron (FR) | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lemonade Thursday | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Keri’s Find (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mach One | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leading West | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cousin Andrew | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demuro | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | We Be There | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Remembermom | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Okie Roughneck | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Napoleon Complex | 50.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Take the Backroads | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Leviosa | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Next Tuesday | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lockstep | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Surprise | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cee Are Em | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amore Fire | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Twenty Two Elle | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Conservatve Values | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pout | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Love Unlimited | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Raw Honey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | I’m So Sorry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Office Etiquette | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sea Pines | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Landslid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ifihadachance | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Coffee Bar | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Enough Love | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Electric Youth | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pendolino | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fair Lassie | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Easter Chocolate | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Sport Model | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Funwhileitlasted | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Shesadirtydancer | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Byhubbyhellomoney | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Time Lady | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Show Me the Honey | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exact Change | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Shaker Shack | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Shamalamadingdong | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fancy Feline | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Towering Orbit | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vivazano | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’m Perfect Too | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tassi | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Empress of War | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Montauk Daddy | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Our Destiny | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Determined Fury | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Wild William | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Convection | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Christopher | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Thing | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Him She Kisses | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Indeed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Charlie Five O | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Magnificent Chrome | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Shine Again S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Kat | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bayerness | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Casual | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Whispering Pines | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honor Way | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bronx Beauty | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | L’Imperator (FR) | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bodecream | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Argonne | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | En Wye Cee | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ever Dangerous | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Burning Bright | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pretty Good Year | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Danny California | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lost in Rome | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Ocean Air | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kitten by the Sea | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Be Up | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Hohohoho | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honor Hop | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Come Storming | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Claddagh’s Run | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Evidence Based | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Amber | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mopolka | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Viburnum | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Trumpet Lilly | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kerik | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Theodora Grace | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rose E Holiday | 15.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Sweet Franny Lu | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.