Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, August 4, 2021

August 4, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Perfect Tapatino (FR) 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Ritzy A. P. 2.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Withoutdestination (GB) 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Silver Crescent (GB) 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Chetzeron (FR) 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Lemonade Thursday 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Keri’s Find (IRE) 10.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mach One 5.00 2 4-1
4 4 Leading West 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Cousin Andrew 0.80 2.3 4-1
5 5 Demuro 10.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 We Be There 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Remembermom 30.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Okie Roughneck 30.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Napoleon Complex 50.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Take the Backroads 2.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Leviosa 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Next Tuesday 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Lockstep 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Sweet Surprise 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Cee Are Em 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Amore Fire 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Twenty Two Elle 20.00 9 17-1
9 9 Conservatve Values 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 Pout 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Love Unlimited 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Raw Honey 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 I’m So Sorry 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Office Etiquette 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sea Pines 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Landslid 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ifihadachance 1.80 2.1 4-1
4 3 Coffee Bar 1.20 3 6-1
6 5 Enough Love 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Electric Youth 6.00 4 8-1
7 6 Pendolino 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 4 Fair Lassie 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Easter Chocolate 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Sport Model 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Funwhileitlasted 2.50 2 4-1
8 6 Shesadirtydancer 4.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Byhubbyhellomoney 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Big Time Lady 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Show Me the Honey 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Exact Change 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Shaker Shack 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Shamalamadingdong 1.20 1.5 3-1
7 6 Fancy Feline 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Towering Orbit 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Vivazano 12.00 5 9-1
6 5 I’m Perfect Too 15.00 5 10-1
5 4 Tassi 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Empress of War 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Montauk Daddy 1.60 2 4-1
5 3 Our Destiny 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 5 Determined Fury 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 6 Wild William 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Convection 4.50 4.6 9-1
11 7 Christopher 10.00 4.9 9-1
12 8 Thing 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 4 Big Wonder 20.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Him She Kisses 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wicked Indeed 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Charlie Five O 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Magnificent Chrome 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Shine Again S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Aunt Kat 1.40 1.7 3-1
1 1 Bayerness 1.60 2.1 4-1
4 4 Casual 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Whispering Pines 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Honor Way 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Bronx Beauty 10.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 L’Imperator (FR) 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 5 Bodecream 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 6 Argonne 5.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 En Wye Cee 1.80 3.2 6-1
3 3 Ever Dangerous 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Burning Bright 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 7 Pretty Good Year 30.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Danny California 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lost in Rome 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Ocean Air 3.50 4 8-1
5 4 Kitten by the Sea 4.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Be Up 8.00 5.3 10-1
12 10 Hohohoho 5.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 Honor Hop 8.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Come Storming 12.00 9.7 18-1
11 9 Claddagh’s Run 12.00 9.9 19-1
8 6 Evidence Based 12.00 10 19-1
3 3 Wicked Amber 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mopolka 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Viburnum 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Trumpet Lilly 1.60 SCRATCH
16 16 Kerik 8.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Theodora Grace 20.00 11.5 22-1
9 7 Rose E Holiday 15.00 11.7 22-1
14 11 Sweet Franny Lu 20.00 12.3 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
2nd - 10:43
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4th - 2:11
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3rd - 7:05
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2nd - 0:00
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2nd - 1:01
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2nd - 2:10
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1st - 1:07
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1st - 1:32
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