Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 31, 2021

July 31, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Master Game 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 5 Woodline 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 2 Kevin’s Folly 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Moving Pictures 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Hoist the Gold 8.00 4.9 9-1
8 6 Jurkovec 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Life Is Great 6.00 SCRATCH
7 6 H P Moon 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sweet Flattery 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Eight Weeks Long 4.50 2.6 5-1
11 11 Out of the Breech 10.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 D’vinicris 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Bielefeld 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Fast Gordon 3.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Gateway Guardian 12.00 3.7 7-1
12 12 Majestic Sky 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Oliver’s Fortune 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Ticket to Antigua 30.00 6 11-1
2 2 Addicted to You 30.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Taco Bean 50.00 9.7 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2A 2 Miss Liana 1.40 1.6 3-1
7A 7 Flat Awesome Jenny 1.40 2 4-1
4 4 Saratoga Beauty 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Cartwheel 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Cathy Naz 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Lady by Choice 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Seeds of Time 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Annika Gold 30.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tough Workout 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 High Tone 2.50 2.7 5-1
10 10 Tamburro’s Sox 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Brennan’s War 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Noble Conquest 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Pivotal Run 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Nightspot 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Enroule 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Wicked Karma 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Bay Defense 30.00 8.7 17-1
11 11 Reunion Tour 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Behind the Couch 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Beautiful Karen 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Out First 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 Shanes Pretty Lady 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Ok Honey 6.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Honey Money 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Khali Magic 12.00 8 15-1
4A 4 Caramocha 12.00 8.9 17-1
9A 9 Chasing Cara 12.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Ohtwoohthreefive 2.00 2.1 4-1
8 6 Limited Liability 5.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Sweeping Giant 6.00 3.2 6-1
10 8 Doctor Davis 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Nyquest Nix 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Dowagiac Chief 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Royal Spirit 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Stellar Tap 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Spettro 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Accretive 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Causin’ Mayhem 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 K Club 6.00 SCRATCH
9 7 R Doc 30.00 11 21-1
3 3 Wick Loves a Fight 30.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Invincible Gal (GB) 3.00 2.9 5-1
10 8 Drawn to Race (GER) 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 6 Love And Thunder (IRE) 2.00 3.3 6-1
6 4 Secret Time (GER) 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 High Opinion 4.00 4.1 8-1
9 7 Pecatonica 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Rivendell 12.00 6 11-1
4 3 Say Moi 30.00 9.7 18-1
3 3 Trumpet Lilly 1.60 SCRATCH
5 5 Halo City 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Easy to Bless 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Firenze Fire 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mischevious Alex 2.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Special Reserve 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Whitmore 4.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Strike Power 15.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Montauk Traffic 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Miles Ahead 12.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Three Technique 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Lexitonian 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Essential Quality 0.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Masqueparade 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Keepmeinmind 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Weyburn 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Dr Jack 15.00 6 11-1
6 6 Risk Taking 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Bowling Green S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Channel Maker 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Moon Over Miami 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Cross Border 4.50 4 7-1
1 1 Channel Cat 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Rockemperor (IRE) 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Breakpoint (CHI) 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Shamrocket 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Red Knight 12.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Vettori Kin (BRZ) 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Morocco 4.50 3.6 7-1
10 9 Sharp Prospect 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Tizzarunner 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 The Last Zip 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Bird’s Eye View 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Counter Offer 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Clear Vision 15.00 6.7 13-1
11 10 Mandate 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Hieroglyphics 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Patriot Drive 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Villainous 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Acker 30.00 11.7 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
3rd - 8:30
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Final
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4th - 5:31
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4th - 3:13
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4th - 3:41
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3rd - 1:55
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3rd - 2:59
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2nd - 0:00
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