July 31, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Night Things | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Its My Bag Baby | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Get Hammered | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lastchanceatglory | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dive Deep | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Change Direction | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dark Ninja | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Finnegan (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Angelino | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Can’t Hide From Me | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Way Home | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deano | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Croce d’Oro | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Christian C | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Temrik | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seven Seventeen | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hoosier Gold Case | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Angel’s Run | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Catnip Kitten | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Close to Me | 1.80 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Hold Queens | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Rejoice an Be Glad | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Command Point | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Caroline’s Story | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Cora | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Slime Queen | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chrome Attack | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Indicia | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gramercy | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Upbeat Melody | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Amanofmystature | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Savage | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Medal of Fact | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coco Bravado | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kosher Cowboy | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stormin El Prado | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ignited | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Unpredictable Bay | 5.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fore Flag | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baltic Fleet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Russian Tank | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sport Pepper | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Degree of Risk | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rocket Man Attack | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Clemson Tiger | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | McRags | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Creative Letters | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gate Crew | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Groom Lake | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Texas Gano | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hawk of War | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Relmbunkus Syr | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Major Wager | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lasten Impression | 12.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toussaint | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Macho Classic | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Moon Flash | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nip N Tuck | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carson Rules | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Clear to Close | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Three Amigos (FR) | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.