Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 30, 2021

July 30, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Laoban’s Legacy 2.00 1.6 3-1
8 5 Sugar and Speights 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 1 Sweet Sugar Baby 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 2 Free Ninety Nine 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 3 Curly Girl 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Succulent 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 One Track Mine 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Trinity Titoli 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 4 Hyperfocus 1.00 2.2 4-1
5 3 Centavo 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 2 Fingal 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 1 City Magic 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Joqular 15.00 SCRATCH
2A 2 Restored Order 1.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Risk Manager 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Chao 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Blue Cat 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 2 Tomato Bill 8.00 2.3 4-1
13 5 Advance Notice 2.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Bourbon Mission 10.00 3.2 6-1
12 4 Tenure 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 3 Muchmorethanthis 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Convection 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Zanno 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Kasim 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Qian B C 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ahead of Plan 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Big Wonder 50.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Montauk Daddy 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Variant Perception 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Too Early 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Control Group 2.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Sea Foam 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Twisted Tom 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Six Percent 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Evaluator 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Fort Worth 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 The Big Kahuna 1.40 1.7 3-1
10 9 Coach Bahe 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 This Ill Defend 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 3 Scotto 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Speed Effect 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Matty’s Marauder 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Litterbox 12.00 5.4 10-1
12 11 Ajhar 12.00 6.3 12-1
7 6 Nutsie 20.00 8.8 17-1
8 7 Halstaat 30.00 9.6 18-1
1 1 Chase Tracker 20.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Bellamy Dolce 30.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 American Xperiment 2.00 1.4 3-1
3 2 Slipstream 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 4 Tokamak 5.00 2.9 5-1
11 6 Bad to the Bones 6.00 2.9 6-1
8 5 Fan the Fire 6.00 3 6-1
5 3 Street N Sour 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Top Gun Girl 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Piqua 8.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 No Mi Culpa 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Castle Leoch 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Big Invasion 8.00 SCRATCH
12A 7 Life Is Great 20.00 12.1 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Winter Pool 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 8 Runnin’ Ray 3.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Hombrazo 5.00 2.9 6-1
10 9 Southern Passage 6.00 3 6-1
11 10 Tiz Rye Time 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Parade Field 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Beachwalker 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Top Gun Tommy 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Obsessed 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Scotty 50.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Liam’s Fire 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 4 Claytnthelionheart 0.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Eyes On Target 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 2 Jarreau 10.00 6.1 11-1
7 3 Rhythm Section 12.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Galawi (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mud Pie 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Exult 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Actuary (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Compliant 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Royale 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Box N Score 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Curlin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 First Captain 1.40 1.2 2-1
7 7 Dynamic One 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Beren 5.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Collaborate 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Harvard 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Snow House 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Miles D 10.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 7 Constitutionalrage 4.50 2.7 5-1
10 4 Highway Queen 3.00 3.5 7-1
15 6 Lemon Taffy 8.00 5.2 10-1
12 5 To the Tune 10.00 7.3 14-1
8 3 The Promised Road 12.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Home for Christmas 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Killoean Rose 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lookin to Fly 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Mill Stone Creek 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Out of Sight 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Little Red Button 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Saigon 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Spanish Dreamer 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady Manhattan 10.00 SCRATCH
2 1 She’s On Point 20.00 11.9 23-1
3 2 Reeley Psyched 20.00 12.1 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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