July 30, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Laoban’s Legacy | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sugar and Speights | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Sweet Sugar Baby | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Free Ninety Nine | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Curly Girl | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Succulent | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | One Track Mine | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Trinity Titoli | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 4 | Hyperfocus | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Centavo | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fingal | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | City Magic | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Joqular | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Restored Order | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Risk Manager | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Chao | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Blue Cat | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | Tomato Bill | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Advance Notice | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Mission | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 4 | Tenure | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Muchmorethanthis | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Convection | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Zanno | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kasim | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Qian B C | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ahead of Plan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Big Wonder | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Montauk Daddy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Variant Perception | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Too Early | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Control Group | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sea Foam | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twisted Tom | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Six Percent | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Evaluator | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Worth | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | The Big Kahuna | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Coach Bahe | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | This Ill Defend | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scotto | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Speed Effect | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Matty’s Marauder | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Litterbox | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ajhar | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nutsie | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Halstaat | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chase Tracker | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bellamy Dolce | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | American Xperiment | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Slipstream | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Tokamak | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Bad to the Bones | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Fan the Fire | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Street N Sour | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Top Gun Girl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Piqua | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | No Mi Culpa | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Castle Leoch | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Big Invasion | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 7 | Life Is Great | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Winter Pool | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Runnin’ Ray | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hombrazo | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Southern Passage | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tiz Rye Time | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parade Field | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beachwalker | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Top Gun Tommy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Obsessed | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scotty | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liam’s Fire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 4 | Claytnthelionheart | 0.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eyes On Target | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Jarreau | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Rhythm Section | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Galawi (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mud Pie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Exult | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Actuary (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Compliant | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Royale | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Box N Score | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Curlin S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | First Captain | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dynamic One | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beren | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Collaborate | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Harvard | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Snow House | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miles D | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 7 | Constitutionalrage | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Highway Queen | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Lemon Taffy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | To the Tune | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | The Promised Road | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Home for Christmas | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Killoean Rose | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lookin to Fly | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mill Stone Creek | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Out of Sight | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Little Red Button | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Saigon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Spanish Dreamer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Manhattan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | She’s On Point | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Reeley Psyched | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.