July 30, 2021 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bernie’s On Fire | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Walk | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mice and Men | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingston Pike | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No More Talk | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Company Clown | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Keepyourskateson | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Americas Woman | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Green Eyes | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Yira | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Hell in a Shell | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Ms. Haiti | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Megalomania | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Make It a Double | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Princess Kokachin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | One Smart Cookie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Trikki Nikki | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Abby Normal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Murph | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Candy Fable | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Whiteknuckleflyer | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | All Worked Up | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Petition Prayer | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Senson | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Louella Street | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Fragrant | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Charm City Band | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Marsac | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Always Misbehaving | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deshackled | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moonzano | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tyreek | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Straitouta Congtin | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Just Go With It | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crying for More | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pepe and Heywood | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Shelly Island | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hushed Hijinks | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Practically Dizzy | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Butter Pecan | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Despeight All Odds | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Devilish Affair | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hufflepuff | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fancy Princess | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mosler’s Image | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Live Aid | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Your Mother | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sue Loves Barbados | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Heir Port | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kenny Had a Notion | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rad Paisley | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mamba On Three | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gale Winds | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | It’s Sizzling Time | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Uncle Roamie | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blame the Booze | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | She’sarollingstone | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My My Girl | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sick Pack Sara | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hitch a Ride | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Marvella Nasty | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clem Gem | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Recycle | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Especiallea | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Prince of Caps | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awesome Jazz | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fermat | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | B Determined | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Monster Mason | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Erawan | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Busster Von Trappe | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inspector Frost | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.