July 30, 2021 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Finnley’s Kitten | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen of Pompeii | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Temple | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Powers Princess | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Slew South | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Our Miss Millie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warrens Candy Girl | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bango Ishernaymo | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ela Calimera Mou | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Aristeia | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Trip to Freedom | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mucha Woman | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | V Bucks | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Melting Snow | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Al’s Princess | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Defiant | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Later Days | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | French Franc (FR) | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zuboshi | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wishing On a Star | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Topanga Canyon | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy On Top | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kitten Calls | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Diva | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Macrelletta | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Urban | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sugar Sugar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Taming the Tigress | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I’m the Boss of Me | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Agreetodisagree | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Great Haynes | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Andy | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pistachio Princess | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dancing Dana | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Elgofranco | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lena’s Big Day | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unusual Ride | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Bell | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Momma Mocca | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chao Mar | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lake Flamingo | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sky On Ice | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss O’Brien | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Koko’s Mom | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Valentine Ghost | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Moon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Real Good Deal S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Atomic Drop | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | None Above the Law | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Chosen Vron | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Top Harbor | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Touchdown Brown | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Letsgetlucky | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Found My Ball | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Buzz | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Seven Charms | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Farquhar | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Liberal (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lure Him In | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luvluv | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stirling Drive | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Capital Call | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cosmo | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Engram | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rijeka (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sometimes Always | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Well | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Poseidon Wrath | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bron and the Brow | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sirocco | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paint Me Lucky | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Careless Kitten | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alarming Moment | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Call Nine One One | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Whistleblower | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.