Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 29, 2021

July 29, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Mo Heat 1.40 1.6 3-1
6 6 Bourbon Rising 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Johnnypump 2.50 1.9 4-1
9 8 Value Chain 8.00 2.6 5-1
2A 2 Jedrek 12.00 3.4 6-1
1A 1 Tiz the Journey 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Canyouhearmenow 20.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Deputies Edge 50.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Free Radical 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cold Hard Cash 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Scuttlebuzz 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Straw Into Gold 2.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Scocciatore 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Call Me Harry 10.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Mo Faith 6.00 6.6 13-1
8 8 Honor Up 12.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Quiet Out East 15.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Kaz’s Beach 15.00 9 17-1
10 10 Market Alert 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Control Group 1.40 SCRATCH
12 12 Danebury 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Auburn Hills 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Dante’s Fire 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 4 Coragescontender 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 5 Pier Forty 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 3 Kid Chocolate 30.00 10 19-1
2 2 Mystery Bank 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Stanhope 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Montauk Summer 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mr. Vincent 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Reckless Spirit 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Unleveraged 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Shoo Shine 2.50 SCRATCH
11 6 No Salt 30.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 4 Kowboy Karma 3.00 1.7 3-1
9 6 High Heater 4.50 1.8 3-1
8 5 The Queens Jules 2.00 1.8 3-1
2 1 Mr. Shortandsimple 15.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 The Great Dansky 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Skyler’s Scramjet 50.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Cause of Action 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bronzed 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Vineyard Sound 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Triple Americano 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Shinjuku 2.50 2.9 6-1
11 10 Second Fortune 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Marc’s Humor 12.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Ravizzol 15.00 3.6 7-1
12 11 Dutchmen Forever 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Crossing Verazanno 15.00 3.7 7-1
10 9 Brother Jeremiah 20.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Crock of Gold 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Prince of Joy 30.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Sugar Plum King 50.00 9.2 17-1
9 9 Flipping Fun 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12A 5 Blest Life 3.50 1.7 3-1
2A 1 The Club 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 2 Daisy Bee 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 4 Benbang 15.00 7.5 14-1
6 3 Solid Tune 20.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Halo of Fire 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Empress Tigress 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Her World (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH
8 5 Mischievous Kiss 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gun Boat 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Consumer Spending 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 The Elle Train (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 1 Create Again 3.00 2.9 5-1
11 4 Zealous 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 3 Mo Gotcha 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 2 Nick Papagiorgio 10.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Abiding Star 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Artemus Bridge 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hieroglyphics 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Attentive 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Soulmate 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Castagno 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Troubling Moon 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Identifier 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Heavy Roller 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 6 Motivated Seller 1.20 1.3 2-1
2A 2 Secondary Market 1.20 1.4 3-1
7 7 Regal Retort 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Finding Fame 6.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Anna’s Fast 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Malibu Mischief 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Kansas Kis 10.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Stand for the Flag 12.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Royal Meghan 15.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Emilia’s Moon 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John Morrissey H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Our Last Buck 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Foolish Ghost 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 My Boy Tate 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Wudda U Think Now 3.00 3 6-1
8 8 Jemography 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Morning Breez 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Captain Bombastic 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Wow Brown 20.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Runningwscissors 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sum Kinda Pretty 4.50 2.3 4-1
10 4 Bonkers 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 2 Wicked Happy 8.00 6.7 13-1
15 7 Malibu Anthem 12.00 8.4 16-1
11 5 Strong Point 15.00 10 19-1
2 2 Little Nutter 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Satch 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Mothers Day Jewel 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hard Won 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Gabby Squared 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Salino 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Blue Times 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Never Content (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH
7 3 Mischief Reigns 20.00 10.7 20-1
12 6 Visibly 20.00 11.1 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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