July 29, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Mo Heat | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Rising | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Johnnypump | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Value Chain | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Jedrek | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Tiz the Journey | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Canyouhearmenow | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Deputies Edge | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Free Radical | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cold Hard Cash | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scuttlebuzz | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Straw Into Gold | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Scocciatore | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Call Me Harry | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Faith | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Honor Up | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quiet Out East | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kaz’s Beach | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Market Alert | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Control Group | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Danebury | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Auburn Hills | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dante’s Fire | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Coragescontender | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pier Forty | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kid Chocolate | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mystery Bank | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Stanhope | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Montauk Summer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Vincent | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Reckless Spirit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Unleveraged | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shoo Shine | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 6 | No Salt | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Kowboy Karma | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | High Heater | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | The Queens Jules | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Great Dansky | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cause of Action | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bronzed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Vineyard Sound | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Triple Americano | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shinjuku | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Second Fortune | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marc’s Humor | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ravizzol | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Dutchmen Forever | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crossing Verazanno | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Brother Jeremiah | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crock of Gold | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prince of Joy | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sugar Plum King | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flipping Fun | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12A | 5 | Blest Life | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | The Club | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Daisy Bee | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Benbang | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Solid Tune | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Halo of Fire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Empress Tigress | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Her World (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Mischievous Kiss | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gun Boat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Consumer Spending | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | The Elle Train (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | Create Again | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 4 | Zealous | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 3 | Mo Gotcha | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Nick Papagiorgio | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abiding Star | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Artemus Bridge | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hieroglyphics | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Attentive | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Soulmate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Castagno | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Troubling Moon | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Identifier | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heavy Roller | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Motivated Seller | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Secondary Market | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Retort | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Finding Fame | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Anna’s Fast | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Mischief | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kansas Kis | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stand for the Flag | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Meghan | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Emilia’s Moon | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John Morrissey H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Our Last Buck | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foolish Ghost | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Tate | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wudda U Think Now | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jemography | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morning Breez | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captain Bombastic | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wow Brown | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Runningwscissors | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Bonkers | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Wicked Happy | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Malibu Anthem | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Strong Point | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Nutter | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Satch | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mothers Day Jewel | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hard Won | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Gabby Squared | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Salino | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Blue Times | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Never Content (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 3 | Mischief Reigns | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Visibly | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.