July 28, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | The Mean Queen (IRE) | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fast Car | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Happy Giant | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Silent Player (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | City Dreamer (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bodes Well (IRE) | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arch My Boy (GB) | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Madison’s Luna | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocking the Boat | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yodel E. A. Who | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clench | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fox Red | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rejected Again | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ocala Dream | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Barrage | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Devious Mo | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Step Dancer | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dreamer’s Disease | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gator Bite | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Gravy | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tales of Saratoga | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Market Alert | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Quasar | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alpine Queen | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Alex | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cazilda Fortytales | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Scott Alaia | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sweet Larissa | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Gina | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | East Wing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Air Cavalry | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Timbuktu | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Regal Empire | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Raw Courage | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Veinticuatro | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Achilles Heel | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toga Dancer | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Resilient Courage | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heart of Savino | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Stop the Spread | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Khali’s Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Boriman | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bointheback | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Spettro | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Kingdom On Paws | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cody’s Wish | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Absolute Courage | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pipeline | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beatbox | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vindictive | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I Am the Law | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Unexpected (JPN) | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zuzudini | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Brody | 50.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Speaktomeofsummer | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Tamahere (FR) | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Witez | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Sweet Melania | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | I’llhandalthecash | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hogans Holiday | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foxtail | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hungry Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Passing Out | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Package | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Noble Emotion | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gypsy King | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colton’s Command | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Unitedandresolute | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | King James | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yes and Yes | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ampersand | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tuggle | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Life Changer | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jake Rocks | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | By George | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Charmed (GB) | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ballydooley (GB) | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Amsden | 15.00 | 14.4 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Honorable Miss H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Bell’s the One | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ain’t No Elmers | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lake Avenue | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Don’t Call Me Mary | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reagan’s Edge | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honey I’m Good | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Mosaic | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Truth Hurts | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sadie Lady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Centurion | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prayer Book | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boldish | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caribbean Gold | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bunker Hill | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Flight to Paradise | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Readyseekgo | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Romantic Man | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Declareatruce | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Empire Attraction | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Private Code | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Loaded Joe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Digital Software | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Value Chain | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bold Victory | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Theregoesmymiracle | 50.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.