Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 25, 2021

July 25, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Trade Secret 2.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Tap N Glo 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Tout Ensemble 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Openthegate 4.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Shanghai Essence 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 S Oh S 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Lady Milagro 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Dream Lith 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Money in the Bank 2.00 3.4 6-1
8 5 Lookin for Trouble 4.50 4 8-1
4 2 Dr. Blute 3.50 4.5 9-1
9 6 Dr. Duke 5.00 4.5 9-1
6 3 Luna’s in Charge 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Our Destiny 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Scotty Brown 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Veterans Beach 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Our Troubadour 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Panster 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Wild William 15.00 SCRATCH
7 4 Him She Kisses 20.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dancing Firefly 3.50 1.9 4-1
10 5 La Victoria 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 2 Tapple Cider 10.00 2.8 5-1
7 3 Pop the Bubbly 12.00 4.4 8-1
8 4 Epona’s Dream 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Hit the Nail 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Marvelous Maude 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Acushla 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Saluki 50.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Caumsett 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 4 Excellent Timing 1.40 1 2-1
6A 5 Bronx Bomber 1.40 1.4 3-1
4 3 Amundson 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 2 Binkster 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 1 Moonachie 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Power Up Paynter 8.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Tale of the Union 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 10 Bella Domenica 5.00 2.2 4-1
10 6 Lime 4.50 2.9 6-1
5 2 Summer At the Spa 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 1 Lucky Latkes 8.00 4.2 8-1
15 9 Air Cavalry 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 3 Miss Mamba 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 4 High School Crush 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Herald Angel 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Appreciate 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ginger Kitty 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Defy Expectations 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sassy Melissa 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Little Dutch Girl 12.00 SCRATCH
9A 5 Carly Hustle 20.00 10.3 20-1
14A 8 Entwine (IRE) 20.00 10.8 20-1
11 7 Stretchthestory 30.00 13.2 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Four Dawn 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Shared Future 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Gal in a Rush 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Demandsrespect 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Miss Interpret 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Lemieux 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Knowing Glance 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Roundabout 15.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Kaely’s Sister 0.60 3.1 6-1
4 2 Thief of Hearts 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Cadeau de Paix 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 4 Lot of Honey 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 3 Polished Gem 15.00 4 8-1
8 6 April Antics 30.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Raffinity 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Master of Hope 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 3 Dack Janiel’s 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Yankee Division 2.50 4.1 8-1
15 6 Chris and Dave 5.00 5.1 10-1
16 7 Winston’s Chance 4.50 5.2 10-1
14 5 Locally Owned 8.00 6.1 12-1
13 4 You’re to Blame 8.00 6.5 12-1
5 2 Falkirk 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Mo Ready 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Olympico (FR) 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Value Engineering 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Forty Under 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Conviction Trade 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 City Man 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Winning Factor 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cavalry Charge 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 No Word 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shuvee S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gold Spirit (CHI) 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Crystal Ball 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Dunbar Road 2.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Royal Flag 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Horologist 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Liberty M D 30.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Antoinette 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mubarmaj 1.60 2.4 5-1
5 5 Legit 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Easy Shot 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Villainous 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Someday Jones 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Crea’s Bklyn Law 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 O Shea Can U See 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 American Lincoln 30.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Respect for All 30.00 8.8 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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