Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 23, 2021

July 23, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Buckingham Prince 1.40 1.3 2-1
7 7 Stolen Base 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Good Skate 5.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 King of Sting 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Big Scully 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Not Yet Charlie 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Sailor Speed 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Whiskey Gent 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Unbridled Bomber 15.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Time Limit 1.80 2.7 5-1
1 1 Fetching 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 3 Awsum Roar 4.50 5 9-1
7 4 Violent Point 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 2 The Important One 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 6 Kinky Sox 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 5 Saratoga Love 12.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Cartwheel 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Beaux Arts 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Rossa Veloce 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 8 Realm of Law 2.00 1.9 4-1
4A 3 Big Everest (GB) 2.50 2.3 4-1
6A 5 American Law 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 4 Charleston Strong 4.50 3.1 6-1
7B 6 Mubtadaa 3.50 3.1 6-1
9 7 Frenchboro 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 1 No Burn 12.00 7.5 14-1
3 2 Ariston 15.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Castle Chaos 12.00 SCRATCH
8B 8 Taraashoq 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Flint Ridge 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Dark Money 1.00 2 4-1
1 1 Just Right 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 6 Durkin’s Call 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Big Mountain 8.00 5.6 11-1
4A 4 Vicar’s Legend 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 I Love Jaxson 12.00 6.8 13-1
3A 3 Manifest Destiny 10.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Sicilia Mike 15.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Lost in Manhattan 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Six Feet Apart 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 4 Tuscan Queen 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 1 Dame Time 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 2 Gailhorsewind 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 6 Cease and Desist 6.00 2.4 5-1
9 8 Sand and Sea 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Arch of Fire 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Fleeting Glimpse 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Boss Cara 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Ajourneytofreedom 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 2 Carom 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Jais’s Solitude 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 3 Opry 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 4 Dot Matrix 6.00 4.5 9-1
11 7 He’s No Lemon 3.50 5.1 10-1
10 6 Journeyman 10.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Real Factor 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Kentucky Ghost 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Limonite 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Can’t Pass It Up 50.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dack Janiel’s 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Math Wizard 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 American Tattoo (ARG) 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Chris and Dave 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Deputy Flag 5.00 2.9 5-1
6 5 Dee Bo 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Forest Spirit 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Papa Smooth 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 U. S. Steel 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Whichwaytomalibu 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Taino 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 8 Magnificent Chrome 30.00 9 17-1
5 5 Brunate 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Apex Predator 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Air Show 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Big Bobby 1.60 1.6 3-1
7 7 Judge N Jury 5.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Devil’s Code 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Colormepazzi 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Quickflash 5.00 3 6-1
1 1 Ninth Hour 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Troubleshooter 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 True Palace 30.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Amy C (GB) 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 4 Jouster 3.50 2.7 5-1
10 9 Minaun (IRE) 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Technical Analysis (IRE) 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Runaway Rumour 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Fluffy Socks 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Demodog 12.00 6.6 12-1
7 6 Tobys Heart 10.00 6.6 13-1
9 8 Navratilova 12.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Invincible Gal (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10A 10 Miss Domina 1.80 1.8 3-1
3A 3 Thrill 1.80 2 4-1
2 2 Epicurean 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Code Name Lise 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Adele Kat 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 High Fair 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Artyistheparty 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Closertotheheart 6.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Thismightbetheone 15.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Soupster 20.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Addie’s Tour 20.00 5.5 10-1
13 13 Ms Penelopepitstop 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Airborne Gal 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Commandandcontrol 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Janselle 50.00 11.3 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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