July 23, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Buckingham Prince | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stolen Base | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Skate | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | King of Sting | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Scully | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Not Yet Charlie | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sailor Speed | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whiskey Gent | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridled Bomber | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Time Limit | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fetching | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Awsum Roar | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Violent Point | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | The Important One | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Kinky Sox | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Saratoga Love | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cartwheel | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Beaux Arts | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Rossa Veloce | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Realm of Law | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Big Everest (GB) | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | American Law | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Charleston Strong | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7B | 6 | Mubtadaa | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Frenchboro | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | No Burn | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ariston | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Castle Chaos | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8B | 8 | Taraashoq | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Flint Ridge | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Dark Money | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Right | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Durkin’s Call | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Mountain | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Vicar’s Legend | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Love Jaxson | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Manifest Destiny | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sicilia Mike | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lost in Manhattan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Six Feet Apart | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tuscan Queen | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dame Time | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gailhorsewind | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cease and Desist | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sand and Sea | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Arch of Fire | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fleeting Glimpse | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boss Cara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Ajourneytofreedom | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Carom | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jais’s Solitude | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Opry | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dot Matrix | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | He’s No Lemon | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Journeyman | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Real Factor | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kentucky Ghost | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Limonite | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Can’t Pass It Up | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dack Janiel’s | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Math Wizard | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Chris and Dave | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Deputy Flag | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dee Bo | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forest Spirit | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Papa Smooth | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | U. S. Steel | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whichwaytomalibu | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Taino | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Magnificent Chrome | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brunate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Apex Predator | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Air Show | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Big Bobby | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Judge N Jury | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Devil’s Code | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colormepazzi | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quickflash | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ninth Hour | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Troubleshooter | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True Palace | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Amy C (GB) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jouster | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Minaun (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Technical Analysis (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runaway Rumour | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fluffy Socks | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Demodog | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tobys Heart | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Navratilova | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Invincible Gal (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10A | 10 | Miss Domina | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Thrill | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epicurean | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Code Name Lise | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Adele Kat | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Fair | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Artyistheparty | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Closertotheheart | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Thismightbetheone | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Soupster | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Addie’s Tour | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ms Penelopepitstop | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Airborne Gal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Commandandcontrol | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Janselle | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.