Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 23, 2021

July 23, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rule Follower 2.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Outrider 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Quality Hour 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Retain 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Governors Wraith 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Baseball Politics 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 R H Smoakem 10.00 2 4-1
4 4 Angelino 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 High On Sugar 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 One Way Home 1.20 3.4 6-1
2 2 Hannity 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Pleasant Moon 6.00 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Timingiseverything 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 River Evangelist 2.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Splash for Gold 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Saturdays Hangover 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Joey B 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Cadet Captain 1.60 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Capt. Maestri 2.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Dream Keeper 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Captain Fantastic 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Duckdevil 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Special Pryce 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Commodore Perry 4.50 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Egomaniac 5.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Powerful Man 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Mango Tree 15.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Agave Kid 3.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Dark Wood (IRE) 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Tom’s Last General 2.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Lady Creed 8.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hide the Demon 6.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 I’m Corfu 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Nuclear Option 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Devileye 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 What’s Up Dude 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Wellabled 2.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Wile E Peyote 10.00 4.5 8-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Power Cry 20.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Mongol Bull 1.40 3.4 6-1
1 1 Seanshine 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Here Comes Kyle 6.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Ripe Attack 4.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Shanghai Point 6.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Boom Box 3.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Will Knows 1.60 SCRATCH
9 9 Storminside 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Good Yegg 10.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Simple Logic 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Dream Attack 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Kingsburry Attack 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Look Away 30.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Perfect Diva 1.80 5 9-1
2 2 Rocket Ride 12.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Polito 3.50 6.5 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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