July 23, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rule Follower | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Outrider | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quality Hour | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Retain | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Governors Wraith | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Baseball Politics | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | R H Smoakem | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Angelino | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High On Sugar | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | One Way Home | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hannity | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pleasant Moon | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Timingiseverything | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | River Evangelist | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Splash for Gold | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saturdays Hangover | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joey B | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cadet Captain | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Capt. Maestri | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dream Keeper | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Captain Fantastic | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Duckdevil | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Special Pryce | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Commodore Perry | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Egomaniac | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Powerful Man | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mango Tree | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Agave Kid | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tom’s Last General | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Creed | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hide the Demon | 6.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I’m Corfu | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nuclear Option | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Devileye | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | What’s Up Dude | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wellabled | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wile E Peyote | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Power Cry | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mongol Bull | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seanshine | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Here Comes Kyle | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ripe Attack | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shanghai Point | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boom Box | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Will Knows | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Storminside | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Good Yegg | 10.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Simple Logic | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Attack | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kingsburry Attack | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Look Away | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Diva | 1.80 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rocket Ride | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Polito | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.