Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, July 22, 2021

July 22, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Redicean (GB) 2.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Gibralfaro (IRE) 1.80 1.8 3-1
3 3 Baltimore Bucko (GB) 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Galway Kid (IRE) 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 French Light (FR) 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Cite 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Wicked Mad 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Rudy Rod 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 6 Recidivist 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Point of Humor 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Rickys Revenge 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Moonshiningbright 15.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Pregame 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Viradia 1.60 1.7 3-1
7B 6 Sirenic 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Mongolian Humor 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Stefanie On Fleek 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Gentle Annie 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Persian Queen 10.00 6 11-1
5A 5 Violent Trick 1.60 SCRATCH
8B 8 Forever Changed 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dancing Kiki 1.80 2.4 5-1
1 1 Courageous Girl 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Stunning Munnings 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Red Venus 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Tenderness 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Pendolino 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Happy Sophia 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Expand the Map (IRE) 1.20 1.5 3-1
10 7 Pizza Bianca 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Hail To 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Fishers 6.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Bali Belle 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Hope Over Fear 12.00 7.6 14-1
9 6 Office Etiquette 15.00 8.3 16-1
5 5 Roundabout 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 My Girl Steve 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Miss Interpret 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Gal in a Rush 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Derrynane 2.50 1.3 3-1
7 7 Quick Power Nap 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Saratoga Kisses 5.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Rooski 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Our Tiny Dancer 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Enjoy Summer 8.00 3 6-1
10 10 Captainsdaughter 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Quaysadilla 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Oak Loves a Fight 20.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Cara’s Nickels 30.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Trinity Titoli 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 My Alluring Lady 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 5 Quantitativbreezin 3.50 2.5 5-1
10 8 Traffic Lane 3.00 3.2 6-1
11 9 Chloe Rose 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Cause to Dream 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 6 Red Pepper Grill 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Irresistible Girl 12.00 6.8 13-1
5A 4 Bustinmygroove 15.00 9 17-1
3 2 Big Tony’s Girl 20.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Nicky Scissors 20.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 Gagliano 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cat’s Pajamas 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 4 Lovely Lucky 1.20 2.5 5-1
7 5 Mia Martina 3.00 3 6-1
3 2 Here Comes Jackie 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Lagom 10.00 7.8 15-1
5A 3 Birdie Queen 12.00 8.4 16-1
2A 2 Emilia’s Moon 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Singita Dreams 0.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Stop Shoppin Tammy 3.00 1.9 4-1
7A 7 Played Hard 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Ice Princess 1.60 2.6 5-1
6 6 Love and Love 3.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Portilla 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Longpants Required 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Iaintfraidanoghost 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Subsidiary 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Social Whirl 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Orma 6.00 2 4-1
12 11 Stella Mars 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Path Less Taken 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Undetectable 12.00 3.9 7-1
11 10 New York Supreme 10.00 4 8-1
6 6 Fastelle 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Ob La Di 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 9 Love’s Misery 20.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Exact Change 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Sassy Belle 30.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Dorothy’s the Boss 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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