Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, July 21, 2021

July 21, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The Mean Queen (IRE) 1.20 1.5 3-1
1 1 The Happy Giant 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Fast Car 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 A Silent Player (IRE) 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 City Dreamer (IRE) 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Bodes Well (IRE) 10.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Arch My Boy (GB) 10.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Copa 1.40 2.1 4-1
4 4 Democratic Values 1.20 2.6 5-1
5 5 Mission Wrapitup 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Macho Boy 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Frosted Indian 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Larceny 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2A 2 Coalition Building 1.00 2 4-1
10 7 Evvie Jets 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 6 Blue Lily 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 4 Peacebethejourney 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Wow 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Empress Theodora 12.00 2.9 6-1
8 5 Superbloodwolfmoon 50.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Ignition Key 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Blue Times 10.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 Federalist Papers 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Rick Violette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Ready A. P. 1.80 1.3 3-1
3 2 Coinage 2.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Run Curtis Run 3.50 2 4-1
4 3 Surprise Boss 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Barese 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Gallina 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Raffinity 0.60 2.5 5-1
4 3 Live in Five 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 7 Handle the Truth 10.00 4 8-1
6 5 Madame Rose 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Decreed 30.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Elegant Laoban 30.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Blind Sight 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Next Tuesday 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 5 Let’s Be Clear 3.50 1.9 4-1
10 9 Take the Backroads 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Morning Matcha 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 G Money Liv 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 7 Solib 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Gabriela’s Miracle 12.00 5 9-1
4 3 Helens Spirit 20.00 7.6 14-1
7 6 Midsummer Nights 20.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Landslid 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Lordhearmyprayer 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sweet Sugar Baby 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mystic Eyes 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Office Etiquette 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Gimme Some Mo 4.00 4 8-1
9 8 Prefect 4.50 4.1 8-1
10 9 Win d’Oro 6.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Devilish Mood 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Front Man 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Amistad 12.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Holy Emperor 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Justintimeforwine 15.00 7.4 14-1
14 12 Silver Token 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Fair Haired Boy 15.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Hilliard 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Absam 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Bricco 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ajhar 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Prime Time Player 8.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Operative 30.00 13.2 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Three Outlaws 4.00 2.1 4-1
5A 4 Discretionary Marq 4.50 2.9 6-1
6 5 Shiraz 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Swashbuckle 6.00 3.4 6-1
12 9 Fast Getaway 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Analyzethisandthat 10.00 4.9 9-1
9 7 Gandy Dancing 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Alphalfa 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Power Up Paynter 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Steam Engine 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Moonachie 6.00 SCRATCH
13A 13 Bronx Bomber 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Robey’s Boy 30.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Forza Di Oro 1.80 2.2 4-1
1 1 West Will Power 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Highest Honors 2.50 3.1 6-1
6 4 Trident Hit 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 American Dubai 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Core Beliefs 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Empty Tomb 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9A 6 Vancouver’s Pride 5.00 2.1 4-1
4A 3 Mommie’s Jewel 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 5 Sandor Clegane 10.00 3.1 6-1
10 7 Distractandattack 6.00 3.3 6-1
12 8 Boom Boom Kaboom 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Damilano 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 4 On Our Way Boyz 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Perfect Banker 15.00 5 9-1
13 9 Napoleon Complex 30.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Fast Gordon 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Babagram 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ticket to Antigua 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Tempesta 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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Scoreboard
1st - 3:09
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2nd - 2:18
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2nd - 7:09
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2nd - 3:00
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3rd - 9:00
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2nd - 9:48
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End 2nd
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