July 21, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Mean Queen (IRE) | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Happy Giant | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Car | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Silent Player (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | City Dreamer (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bodes Well (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Arch My Boy (GB) | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Copa | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Democratic Values | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mission Wrapitup | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Macho Boy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Indian | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Larceny | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Coalition Building | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Evvie Jets | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Blue Lily | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Peacebethejourney | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wow | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Empress Theodora | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 50.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ignition Key | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Blue Times | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Federalist Papers | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Rick Violette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Ready A. P. | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coinage | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run Curtis Run | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surprise Boss | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Barese | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Gallina | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Raffinity | 0.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Live in Five | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Handle the Truth | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Madame Rose | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Decreed | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elegant Laoban | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blind Sight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Next Tuesday | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Let’s Be Clear | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Take the Backroads | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morning Matcha | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | G Money Liv | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Solib | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gabriela’s Miracle | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Helens Spirit | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midsummer Nights | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Landslid | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lordhearmyprayer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sweet Sugar Baby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mystic Eyes | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Office Etiquette | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Gimme Some Mo | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Prefect | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Win d’Oro | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Devilish Mood | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Front Man | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amistad | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Emperor | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Justintimeforwine | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Silver Token | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fair Haired Boy | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hilliard | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Absam | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bricco | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ajhar | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Prime Time Player | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Operative | 30.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Three Outlaws | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Discretionary Marq | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shiraz | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Swashbuckle | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Fast Getaway | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Analyzethisandthat | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gandy Dancing | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alphalfa | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Power Up Paynter | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Steam Engine | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Moonachie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Bronx Bomber | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Robey’s Boy | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Forza Di Oro | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West Will Power | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Highest Honors | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Trident Hit | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Dubai | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Core Beliefs | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Empty Tomb | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | 6 | Vancouver’s Pride | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Mommie’s Jewel | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sandor Clegane | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Distractandattack | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Damilano | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | On Our Way Boyz | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Banker | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Napoleon Complex | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Gordon | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Babagram | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ticket to Antigua | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tempesta | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.