Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 18, 2021

July 18, 2021 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Mischief Mogul 1.40 1.6 3-1
3 1 Silver Samurai 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 5 Shipsational 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 2 Doin’ittherightway 6.00 2.4 5-1
6 4 Stop the Spread 30.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Last Minute Mario 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Knightly Mischief 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Tallis 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 4 Mystical Man 6.00 2.7 5-1
15 9 Bold Victory 4.50 3.6 7-1
7 5 Group Hug 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 1 Abdan 20.00 5.5 10-1
9 6 Welshman 20.00 5.7 11-1
12 7 The Angry Man 12.00 5.9 11-1
14 8 Theregoesmymiracle 30.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 No Burn 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Charleston Strong 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Amano 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Partner’s Hope 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Complicate 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mark This Down 12.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Islandman 50.00 11.6 22-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 8 Honey Money 3.50 5 10-1
1 1 Breakfastatbonnies 1.20 5.6 11-1
15 7 Beautiful Karen 5.00 5.7 11-1
9 4 Snicket 4.50 5.7 11-1
8 3 Byhubbyhellomoney 10.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Canarsie Angel 12.00 9.2 17-1
13 5 Left Leaning Lucy 12.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Jill’s a Hot Mess 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Athena Dancer 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Get the Candy 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Big Time Lady 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Chasing Cara 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Fractorzation 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Little Dutch Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Show Me the Honey 6.00 SCRATCH
14 6 Shesasuperfreak 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Misty Veil 2.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Honor Hop 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 High Fashion 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Family Time 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Puye Timing 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Suspended Campaign 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Poncho Song 8.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lil Stevie 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Hot Rod Rumble 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Juggler 4.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Senbei 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Cozzy’s Attitude 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Disengage 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Gimmedamoney 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Wicked Bobby 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Fortuity 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Fast Break 4.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Glory Road 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Malthael 5.00 3.7 7-1
10 6 Free Enterprise 2.50 3.8 7-1
8 5 Handy 10.00 3.8 7-1
12 7 Liveyourbeastlife 8.00 4 8-1
13 8 Respect for All 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Blue Lou Boyle (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Matta 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Life On Top 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Summer to Remember 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 No Salt 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Equal Pay 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Mezcal 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Big City Momma 6.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 More Moonshine 5.00 2 4-1
9 8 Perfect Grace 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Super Quick 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Venus Oyzo 30.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Rhombique 30.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Point Wild 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pleasure Luck 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 7 Awesome Debate 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 5 Timely Tradition 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 My Roxy Girl 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Betsy Blue 4.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Wailin Josie 15.00 4 8-1
2 2 Awillaway 30.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Diva Banker 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Goin’ Good 2.50 3 6-1
6 3 Shop Girl 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 1 Mischiefful 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 4 Farsighted 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Star Devine (IRE) 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Honey Pants 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bye Bye 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 What a Trick 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Wink 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Illegal Smile (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Before You 1.20 1.9 4-1
4 4 Dearest Kitten 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Morning Cocktail 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Shirley Greene 10.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Shining Colors 3.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Wildwood Flash 15.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Employees Only 30.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Dam the Deficit 30.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Mia Calia 50.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Decreed 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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